Commentary
Soybean and corn harvest is moving along rapidly in most areas. Some areas are better than they thought; some worse. But that always seems to be the case. For the amount of rain received in some areas, overall, the corn crop is better than expected in my opinion. As harvest advances the unknown production estimates become a known in my opinion. The USDA will update their findings on Wednesday November 9th. After that report, grains become a demand driven market in my opinion, as US production becomes a known. Export sales data will be released tomorrow giving an updated look at the export situation. The previous export sales report for week ending October 6, showed 528 million bushels of corn sold so far for the 2022/23 marketing year. At this same point last year, 1087 million bushels had been committed to export. The 5-year average is 791 million bushels. 105 million bushels of corn has actually shipped for 2022/23 compared to 134 million bushels at this point in 2021/22. In my opinion, demand needs to pick up the pace or the market could see a corrective pullback to perhaps a 50 percent retracement from the July low at 5.61 to last week’s high at 7.06. That level comes in at 6.32. However, a close over 6.93 could push the market up to 7.28, where there is a gap on the weekly continuous chart.
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