Commentary
Bearish forces strengthened last week as December futures sank to a six-month low. In my opinion rain and slightly milder weather in the Midwest the last week of July haver the potential to boost chances the crop will pollinate with little damage, meaning funds could continue to liquidate amid a removal of previously built weather premium. Historical patterns suggest further downside risk as prices are still elevated in my opinion at the 5.60 level. Anecdotal reports from around the Midwest suggest a big crop is coming, though persistent drought in some areas may sustain uncertainty about record yield potential. A return of Ukraine supplies may also weigh on prices. Recession-linked outside markets like crude oil also bear watching as well as the elevated Greenback. Weather forecasts need to verify as far as moisture is concerned in my view. We are at a key technical level at the 5.63 area. This represents five percent lower for 2022. Should that not hold. I look for the market to prober 5.32 and then 5.03. Resistance for December corn next week is 5.83. The market needs to see a close over this level in my opinion, to establish some footing. To turn bullish corn in my view, the market needs to close over 6.24 basis December 22.
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