Grain Spreads: Beans Fall Back

Sean LuskGeneral Commentary


May soybeans finished down over 15 cents which basically nullified Friday’s rallies in today’s session. Price action was weak all session as energy prices retreated following Iran’s attempted strike against Israel over the weekend. This morning’s export inspections showed that the seasonal decline in soy shipments may continue. Loadings last week totaled 430K vs 530K a year ago. The USDA estimates total exports for the year will be 8.4 million metric tons less than last year. To add to the downside pressure today, NOPA came out with their monthly crush estimate. NOPA stated that soybean crush was 196.4 million bushels, but below the average trade guess of 197.8 million bushels. The number is up from 186.2 million bushels last month and 185.8 million bushels last year, and a single-month record for any month of the year, ahead of 195.3 million bushels in December 2023. Cumulative Sept-March crush is up to 1308 million bushels, 78.5 million ahead of last year’s seven-month pace, which is still over 6% ahead of last year, with the USDA looking for a 4% year on year total crush rise.  Brazil’s bean basis started the week off unchanged but are also at least a $.50 per bushel discount to US CIFs. Brazil’s crop inventories build with harvest now 87% complete vs 88% a year ago. Planting season has begun in the US for beans as they come in three percent planted while corn is six percent. May soybeans are still the most actively traded contract. Weekly support is at 11.40. A close under and we could test the Feb lows at 1128 quickly. Under 11.28 and its 11.14 and then 11.03. Resistance is 1168/69. Consecutive closes over this level and the market could run up to 12.11. A close over 12.11 and the market could challenge 1221 and 1234. 

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Sean Lusk

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