Commentary
Chinese purchases propelled the biggest weekly U.S. soybean export sales figure (2.336 MMT) in a year, but the market still turned in a somewhat tepid performance for the week, as November futures posted a modest gain near 10 cents. The bean market has become rangebound teetering just above and below 14.00 In my view it reflects outlooks for record South American production, combined with a low Mississippi River bogging down exports. As harvest pressure fades, prices still hold potential for modest rallies in my opinion, especially if China continues its recent buying spree. An extension of soybean oil’s surge to four-month highs could provide support. But the market may continue the general sideways trade ahead of USDA’s Nov. 9 Crop Production Report. Technical levels come in as follows for next week. Support is at 13.60. A close below and the market could test 1339, and if that is taken out, 1288 is the next level of support which is the July 22 low. Resistance is at 1422 (100 MA) and 1426. A close over 1426 and the market could race back up to 14.77 and then 14.88.
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