Commentary
Beans saw a bullish reaction as USDA cut the yield by 1.4 bushels to 50.5 bushels per acre, below the lowest of the trade estimates. It also cut 600K off soybean harvested acres. This cut production by 153 million bushels. Therefore, Soybean ending stocks fall to 200 million bushels, or a 16.5-day supply. That doesn’t leave any room for additional yield cuts, and more will be expected by the trade in my opinion. Small crops tend sometimes to get smaller and this certainly in my view could be the case with not only yield falling, but harvested acres falling too. I included a weekly continuous bean chart. It appears to me that technically that should beans continue to rally, I look for the 15.36/15.40 area to be tested. A close above could push the market to the 15.36/15.40 area. However, a close under 1456.2 and we could see a pullback to 14.06 and then 13.94 November soybeans. A close under 13.94 this week and its katy bar the door to 13.39 in my opinion. Given that the combines will start rolling soon amid an elevated Dollar and weakness in equities, don’t rule out anything. Trade the charts!
Trade Ideas
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