FRIDAY MORNING RADAR = The Friday morning radar shows that the heavy rains have now left southeastern ILL and far southeastern MO. There is heavy rain over the entire southeast third of IND and most of western and northern OH. These heavy rains and storms extend into far north western KY, and moderate rains are to be found over much of TN. To the east heavy rain and thunderstorms have moved through eastern NC, eastern VA, MD, DEL. Heavy rains continue across central and eastern PA, all of NJ are now moving into New England.
THURSDAY MAX TEMPS – LINK
40s and Low 50s over far se MO, most of ILL, IND, MI, OH… 60s over se OH, KY, TN, north AL, MS, LA, ARK, rest of MO, IA, MN, eastern SD, eastern NEB, all of KS, eastern COL, OK and TX panhandles… 70s over central OK, rest of TX, se AL and GA and over SD, ND, eastern WY/MT.
MIN TEMPS FRI AM – 30s over most of NEB, western KS and over northern western MN, nw half of IA, all of WI… 40s over nw OH, all of IND, ILL, western TN, western KY, MO, most of ARK, northern LA, southeast third of IA, ND, SD, eastern KS, OK, western TX.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS ENDING 0700 CDT – The PURPLE color is 3-4″/ 75-100mm + rains… the rest of the colors represent rains of 1.5-2.75″/ 38-70mm.
1-5 DAY = The rainfall forecast map over the next 5 days is somewhat deceptive because it is based upon the current rain which is now coming to an end over the ECB. This means that if we exclude the next 24 hours, all the Midwest as well as the most portions of the Plains and the Delta regions will be dry for next four days.
6-10 DAY = There are significant changes in the 6-10 DAY. Over the last few days most of the European model has shown a generally dry (but not 100% dry) 6-10 DAY for the Midwest. A large portion of the upper Plains also seems to stay dry. Meanwhile the GFS model has consistently showed a much wetter pattern. The morning European model has turned significantly wetter and towards the GFS solution and this is also supported by the Canadian model as well. This image shows a comparison of all three regular or operational models for the 6-10 DAY. Again for the European model this is a major change from what was showing over the past few days. Notice that the European and the Canadian models have the best rains from I-70 southward — which of course is where the rains are not needed because that is the flooded area in the Midwest region.
This shift in the 6-10 DAY is supported by the European, Canadian and the GFS ensembles which are in strong agreement. What is happening here is that the weather models are now “seeing” that the large Upper Low in the upper atmosphere coming in from California and into the Rockies does not get crushed or suppressed as it moves into the Plains. Instead the Upper Low re-develops over the central Plains next week. This allows for a much wetter pattern to develop BUT mainly from Interstate 70 southward. This means that most of the upper Plains and the WCB regions (north of I-80) stay dry for the most part over the next 6-10 DAY.
In our view it looks like a fairly wet 6-10 D but there is still a bit of uncertainty here. Clearly the best areas likely to see significant rains in the 6-10D are the central Plains into the Midwest SOUTH of I-70 … though some rain falls up to I-80. Because of the extreme blocking pattern in the Jet stream over ne Canada and Greenland there is some risk that the forecast for the 6-10 day come Sunday night — which would be the 1-5 day COULD turn drier again.
11-15 DAY = In addition, the models also somewhat wetter for the 11 to 15 day. The Thursday afternoon models showed a very little rain over large portions of the Midwest and the Plains but as you can see the new data again shows more energy coming in from the Pacific. This results in a wetter looking 11-15 day. This rain does not look particularly heavy but it is certainly not dry. The rains again seem to be from I-80 SOUTH.
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