Economic Commentary

walshtradingGeneral Commentary, Grains


The equities are pausing after the recent strength. The market marked a near term low and has performed well over the last couple of weeks. This may prove to be a rally in a macro bear market that is presenting an opportunity. There are numerous releases and political influences on the way. The Fed will continue their interest rate increases this week most likely. The current environment has not slowed as of yet with respect to overall inflation. The expectation is for .75 basis points again. This still may not be enough unless there is a major change. In addition, many companies will report earnings. This should be very interesting. The last thing to consider is the mid-term election. If in fact a major shift is underway, so too will policy type changes. The fear going forward may become stagflation. The tech picture for equities in general shows the markets above the 14, 21 day moving averages on the daily time frame. However, the weekly and monthly are still in a solid down.


The bond market remains in a long-protracted move lower. The Feds, it appears, will raise rates again this week. The near-term outlook will weigh whether or not a pause is in the cards. The market could react after that and have a relief rally. The justification for that may be completely technical. It appears the long-term prognosis of major policy shifts are getting less and less likely. Meaning further rate increases after the new year may be as plausible as a shift. Inflation is not extracted easily from a historic perspective. The tech outlook for bonds has the market below the 14, 21 day moving averages. The macro tech picture remains down and rallies should be viewed at present as selling opportunities.


The dollar remains the reserve currency to the world for a reason. The strength exhibited can continue in the near term. Especially if the global market continues to function as it is. The Chinese market is slowing. The EU is in some peril on various fronts. The war in Ukraine is taking its toll. All things considered the greenback will represent strength even though we, as an economy, are slowing. The tech situation in the dollar with the recent pull back has the market nominally below the 14, 21 day moving average. The macro remains up. The weakness may present long term value.


No Commentary today.


John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

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