The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity
September Copper
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September Copper (Daily)
As of this writing, September Copper is trading at 5.7300, up 0.0925 or 1.64%, today. (it’s not a settlement or closing price yet, as this market stops trading at 4 PM CT) This looks like it will be a contract high close today, above the previous high close on July 8th at 5.6855. Following the very large “up” day on the 8th, the market did not retrace lower, it looks to me as if it just went sideways. That large move up was spurred primarily, I think, by tariff announcements (threats?) on Copper imports. I suppose we’ll have to wait and see if those materialize or not. Instead of a sharp move lower, the price went sideways until it hit the support levels offered by the 5-and 10-day moving averages last Thursday. (blue/red, 5.6082/5.5851, respectively) Since then, we’ve seen 3 solid sessions of upward movement. Those moving averages are still in a bullish configuration, in my opinion. In fact, those two averages made a bullish crossover with today’s trade, after whipsawing into the “sell” side yesterday. Overall, I like this market from the long side. The longer-term averages on the chart above are the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day (green, grey, purple) and those are all well below the market and inclined slightly. Stochastics (bottom sub-graph) are seeing the “fast” line tick into overbought status, but they both still have a ways to go before being technically overbought. There is a trendline drawn on the chart, roughly from the October 2024 highs to the March 2025 highs. Today that level is up near 5.9400, which seems like a reasonable upside target. Aggressive and very well-margined traders may do well to consider long positions in the Copper futures. For those with smaller accounts, there is a micro Copper contract that may be appropriate for you. Downside risk may be managed with either a Sell Stop in the futures or by using Put options (mind the Delta) For now, I’ll leave those risk levels up to you. If you need suggestions, please call or email me directly.
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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets. You can view my most recent video here
September Copper (Weekly)
This weekly view of September Copper goes back a little over 2 years, to May of 2023. You may notice that this market was stuck in a consolidation pattern, or sideways trade, until the spring of last year. There’s certainly been some up/down trending activity since then, but to my eye, the overall trend is up. I think the trend has accelerated during 2025. You’ll see that the market has bounced off of the 200-week moving average (purple, 4.2153 today) in the last week of 2024, rallied to new highs late in March before “crashing” over a two-week period to revisit that long term-support level. It did not break to new lows, at that time, instead rallying again to set new contract highs again a couple of weeks ago. I think this weekly chart looks strong and still bullish. There is a trendline drawn (roughly) from the October 2024 highs to the March 2025 highs. Coincidentally, the recent run-up in prices stopped at/near that trendline. To my eye, it’s poised to make another run higher and test that trendline again. This week, that value would be up near the 5.930 level. For traders with long futures positions, that may offer an attractive profit target level. The 5-and 10-week moving averages (blue/red, 5.411 and 5.1479, respectively) have held as support since late May and are currently pointing higher. The 50-week (green, 4.6498) and the 100-week averages (grey, 4.3938) are both well below the market and inclined higher. The weekly stochastic (bottom sub-graph) has ticked back up into overbought status. It might want to stay that way for an extended period, like it did in the spring of 2024.
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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets. You can view my most recent video here
Jefferson Fosse Walsh Trading
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