What might impact the market from this point onward to the USDA reports set to be released on October 11? The USDA figures shook the markets today as the trade talk prior to the release was that corn yields would be slightly down, bean slightly higher and world wheat carryover a little tighter…………………It’s always something!………………………………………..In past years we’ve …
Pre USDA
Good day traders, ARP here The theme in my view going forward is there will be a lot on the table. A figure of speech of course implying the volatility in my opinion will remain large and this will create opportunity and risk. For the busy ag producer I offer my services to attempt to assist in a viable market …
AG TIME – Let’s See The Numbers
The markets came under pressure today. The usda release will come tomorrow. It makes little sense to make bold predictions. I will say the weekly progress showed a 2% increase in beans. A late in the year increase perhaps indicating the aug, sept weather has added yield. The market, it appears, is anticipating a further increase in yield. Adding bushels. …
AG TIME – Long Term Changes, Perhaps
The soy was higher today. I would like to take a step back and look at the market from a longer term perspective. No specific trade ideas. Just a thought on where we may be going. It is my belief the complex is on a major shift. The last while has been based on crushing for meal demand. Protein. The …
Accuracy and Reliability
Recent published studies indicate that the USDA is getting more reliable and accurate with September production and supply/demand estimates when compared with the final figures…………..Just another reason that the USDA should be respected and the report on Wednesday approached with respect and caution……………….. When compared with the August figures over the last twenty years the final corn production figures were …
Buy Corn, Wheat, Sell Spus, Stocks?
ARP here, I will jump right in. There are a lot of Olives I am looking for. The Volatility creates risk, but olive opportunities as well. Fridays can be interesting days for the trade. In addition we can look for setups into the next week. STOCKS I have put out a Olive Line sell in the Dow at 26170. Could …
AG TIME – Marking Time Now
The soy markets have corrected a bit here with meal leading the way. The USDA report Wednesday should provide a couple things. 1) confirmation of a larger carry. 2) confirmation of a weakening demand base. The current estimates have cut China’s demand back. It is important in my opinion to understand that the numbers in and of themselves by all …
Olive Line – Currency, Meats, Grains
ARP HERE, There continues to be chaos around the globe due to uncertainty regarding the currency relationships. There has been much movement in the currency pairs over the last 6 months. CURRENCY The dollar 95.55 nl(neckline) rejected. This could be a possible top in my opinion. MEATS It is one of my thoughts. Don’t be afraid to fade public opinion. …
Tasks at Hand
The USDA will issue new production and supply/demand estimates next Wednesday at 11:00 am Chicago time…………………Trade estimates are being released and it appears that the expectation is for the bean crop to be larger than the previous USDA estimate in August while the corn crop could be very close to the August estimate…………….Carry over projections in both domestic and international …
AG TIME – What is Going on?
The meal rallied today. The thought of Argentina putting an export tax on beans is pushing meal. This to me does not make sense. The US harvest is upon us and the size of the crop will allow Argentina, and any one else for that matter, to buy beans, import and crush for profit. The world is awash with a …