The CME is expected to lower the storage rate for wheat as of December 19, 2018 as the WZ/WH spread is at less than 50% of the CME calculated full carry running average on November 23………………………It is close to a mathematical impossibility to not lighten the maximum storage rate starting on December 19 as the running average with …
AG TIME – Record Turkey on the Way
The markets up again. The banter regarding what The Trump Admin will do is getting old. Frankly, if this is what is the most important thing to the market, which it seems it is, then I must be long in the tooth. The one long term constant in, my opinion, is that the numbers matter. Today perhaps there exists a …
Getting Through Deliveries
Six trading sessions left to leave or roll out of December futures positions prior to first notice day on November 30………..We are open a full session tomorrow and will be closed on Thursday and enjoy a shortened session on Friday…………..Happy Thanksgiving! It still appears that the market is floundering as end users are hoping for another 10 …
AG TIME – Round and Round We Go
The markets under pressure. The weekend meeting bore no fruit. The President is scheduled to speak with Premier Xi at the end of this month. The reality as I see it is the Chinese will need to make a deal. They won’t win a drawn out battle. Trump would like another victory. I question much of what I read. The …
Looking for a Trade Agreement
The market’s focus may be turning to the southern hemisphere with wheat harvest weather in Argentina and Australia and soybean sowing conditions in Brazil and Argentina……………..For all extent and purposes the bean and corn harvest in the US is done as is winter wheat seeding……………………….We are approaching Holiday mode and the markets are closed on Thursday and close early …
AG TIME – Looking Forward
The soy was led higher by meal. The President said he was working on some deals with China and suspended further tariff action. A deal will be forthcoming at some point. But, what does it really mean to the market? My long term thoughts remain on the bear side. There are many things going on. The US carry has grown …
Thanksgiving Week
Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Year’s Day are here and now and we are in official holiday mode next week………………………………..Grains are closed on Thursday and close early on Friday…………………………………………………………………..Liquidation and roll over of December futures might be the focus of the market the next few sessions as first notice day is November 30……………………………Trade talk is that we might anticipate healthy corn deliveries and …
Politics/Trade Pacts/Thanksgiving
On November 23 the CME has the authority to recalculate daily storage fees for wheat and if the WZ/WH spread is at or under 19 cents storage rates will drop to .00265 cents/bushel/day from the present .00365 cents/bushel/day…………….Spreads might just stay within the range of less that 50% of full carry and, theoretically, may go to inverse, but, that’s …
Deliveries and G 20
Hopes are growing for a new trade pact/agreement with China clearing more hurdles and, perhaps, culminating a little before, on, or shortly after the G-20 meetings scheduled for November 30 in Buenos Aires…………………………Good news from the Korean Peninsula may coincide and we may be facing a new year with bright trade prospects…………………………….. Corn and bean harvest is approaching …
AG TIME – Much to Consider
The soy was lower yesterday. There are a few reasons. The harvest progress is rolling along. The US China spat is of concern. It will be a daily speculation. If the spat is settled beans can rally. In my opinion it would be a short vertical rally that would offer hedging opportunities. The markets are pointing to longer term bear …