We’re there or almost there with stopping Kansas City futures, taking the bushels and loading them on rail cars and shipping them up to deliverable Chicago elevators…….Is there enough time and are there entities out there capable and willing to use their facilities? Speculators might theorize and contemplate being long KC and short Chicago yet, it takes actual cash traders …
AG TIME – G Meeting
This weekend should be market moving one way or the other. Sunday evening could be interesting. President Trump will be meeting with President Xi. It is my thought that a window of opportunity will present itself. Trump, I believe, wants a deal. Xi I believe needs a deal but doesn’t want to look like he needs one. If a verbal …
New Beginning Next Month?
One month left in the calendar trading year and we’re still near levels which may be viewed as too cheap to sell yet there’s no urgency to buy………………………..Spreads are wide enough to reflect the comfortable situation the world is in for soy products and feed grains yet, wheat spreads may have some play in the inter and intra markets as …
AG TIME
Overall a quiet day. anticipation regarding the meeting this weekend between Trump and Xi. My belief is that they will agree in general on some changes. the implementation will take some time. This will open the door for the Chinese to buy US products again. this could offer a rally. If so the 2019 needs to be sold at higher …
Hopes and Dreams from Argentina
Some traders are still uncomfortable with the Chicago wheat contract and the ability of the issuer to put out stocks laden with vomitoxin levels which are deemed by the FDA (Federal Drug Administration) as unfit for human consumption… for raw wheat the old limit was 2 ppm and the limit for finished products is 1 ppm…………………..this may inherently …
AG TIME – Really Something
I am enjoying the fact that the soy is back above $9.00 march forward. This is important. The current price plus the US one time payment of approx $1.60 bolsters the balance sheet. I believe the market (soy) is historically way overpriced. Given the carry, domestic and global, this is high priced. I believe the market will start to suggest …
Adjusting Chicago/Kansas City/Minneapolis
Spread differences between Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat have been historically skewed the past few months…………………………some say that the speculative community got caught being long Kansas City and short Chicago which allowed for Kansas City to slip to a very large and unnatural discount to Chicago this month……………………………..In its natural state Kansas City is typically 15 to 20 …
AG TIME – A Tale of two Tapes
The first is the soy. The market apparently does not think Trump and Xi will work out their differences. As I have said, it will take some time, but China will capitulate. Regardless of the timing, there are too many beans in the world. The SA weather is excellent overall. The US harvest is wrapping up. The export numbers tell …
Weekly Events
Friday is first notice day on the December futures for delivery on December 3 which is the first day of Hanukkah…………………Given present basis levels traders might anticipate heavy corn deliveries and light wheat deliveries………..Regardless, out of position hedgers and speculators tend to be out of any and all December futures by the close on Thursday! Hopes are high …
Storage Calculation
The CME is expected to lower the storage rate for wheat as of December 19, 2018 as the WZ/WH spread is at less than 50% of the CME calculated full carry running average on November 23………………………It is close to a mathematical impossibility to not lighten the maximum storage rate starting on December 19 as the running average with …