Spread differences between Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat have been historically skewed the past few months…………………………some say that the speculative community got caught being long Kansas City and short Chicago which allowed for Kansas City to slip to a very large and unnatural discount to Chicago this month……………………………..In its natural state Kansas City is typically 15 to 20 …
AG TIME – A Tale of two Tapes
The first is the soy. The market apparently does not think Trump and Xi will work out their differences. As I have said, it will take some time, but China will capitulate. Regardless of the timing, there are too many beans in the world. The SA weather is excellent overall. The US harvest is wrapping up. The export numbers tell …
Weekly Events
Friday is first notice day on the December futures for delivery on December 3 which is the first day of Hanukkah…………………Given present basis levels traders might anticipate heavy corn deliveries and light wheat deliveries………..Regardless, out of position hedgers and speculators tend to be out of any and all December futures by the close on Thursday! Hopes are high …
Storage Calculation
The CME is expected to lower the storage rate for wheat as of December 19, 2018 as the WZ/WH spread is at less than 50% of the CME calculated full carry running average on November 23………………………It is close to a mathematical impossibility to not lighten the maximum storage rate starting on December 19 as the running average with …
AG TIME – Record Turkey on the Way
The markets up again. The banter regarding what The Trump Admin will do is getting old. Frankly, if this is what is the most important thing to the market, which it seems it is, then I must be long in the tooth. The one long term constant in, my opinion, is that the numbers matter. Today perhaps there exists a …
Getting Through Deliveries
Six trading sessions left to leave or roll out of December futures positions prior to first notice day on November 30………..We are open a full session tomorrow and will be closed on Thursday and enjoy a shortened session on Friday…………..Happy Thanksgiving! It still appears that the market is floundering as end users are hoping for another 10 …
AG TIME – Round and Round We Go
The markets under pressure. The weekend meeting bore no fruit. The President is scheduled to speak with Premier Xi at the end of this month. The reality as I see it is the Chinese will need to make a deal. They won’t win a drawn out battle. Trump would like another victory. I question much of what I read. The …
Looking for a Trade Agreement
The market’s focus may be turning to the southern hemisphere with wheat harvest weather in Argentina and Australia and soybean sowing conditions in Brazil and Argentina……………..For all extent and purposes the bean and corn harvest in the US is done as is winter wheat seeding……………………….We are approaching Holiday mode and the markets are closed on Thursday and close early …
AG TIME – Looking Forward
The soy was led higher by meal. The President said he was working on some deals with China and suspended further tariff action. A deal will be forthcoming at some point. But, what does it really mean to the market? My long term thoughts remain on the bear side. There are many things going on. The US carry has grown …
Thanksgiving Week
Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Year’s Day are here and now and we are in official holiday mode next week………………………………..Grains are closed on Thursday and close early on Friday…………………………………………………………………..Liquidation and roll over of December futures might be the focus of the market the next few sessions as first notice day is November 30……………………………Trade talk is that we might anticipate healthy corn deliveries and …