Commentary: The soy has been led higher by the old crop. Both beans and meal have been the leaders while the oil share has lost approx 6% in the past weeks. The catalyst for the strength has been concern over the recent weather in South America that has caused reductions in crop size. In addition, for meal, concerns due to …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn has dropped recently. There are real concerns over the shuttering of the Bio industry. This, if prolonged, will lead to an accumulation of corn stocks, potentially. The Covid shut down extension does not help this thought. The Chinese have been buyers of US corn, up to 1 mil tns. There is thought they may buy 1.5 mmt …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The corn market did a good job today closing higher. I say this because it looks as though the funds sold up to 2000 contracts on the day. The big talk today is that a large ethanol producer shuttered today for a bit. This is an ongoing trend and is of concern to the corn demand story. In addition, …
Soy Complex
Commentary: The soy was mostly mixed today. The fund estimates for the day, for those watching, were sold 1400 contract beans, bought 1000 meal sold 1000 bean oil. The meal was able to close higher despite the fact that Chinese meal was sharply lower last night. There are many unanswered questions that will have an impact going forward. Will the Chinese …
Soy Complex Commentary
Commentary: The soy came under some pressure today. The pressure stems from a couple thoughts. The USDA will release acreage estimates soon. The thought process is the bean acres could increase by 9 million acres. In addition, this recent rally could add 1-2 million more acres at the expense of corn. This is an idea floating around. The question is, …
Corn Commentary
Commentary: The Chinese have purchased approx 1 mmt of corn. There are thoughts that they could purchase another 1.5 mmt in the near term. This is a positive to be certain. It looks as though the near term low basis may of 332 could be the temporary low. There are a few near term supportive factors. However, it can’t be …
Ag Commentary
Commentary: Thoughts regarding the relationships in the AG sector. The Chinese have begun some purchases today. The exact quantities are not known at this time. However, the market fall put beans and corn in a relative position globally. This allowed the Chinese to buy at a par value. Looking out towards planting, it occurs to me that perhaps the acreage …
Grain Spreads: Corn Realities…
Spot Corn futures settled at their best level in weeks and looks poised for a potential run to 4.05 basis March futures and maybe beyond. Weather and its impact on future yields in South America will be one of the major determinants for price. The demand side of the ledger will depend on sales for future shipment to increase in …
Feeling Cautiously Bullish on 2020 Beans?
With a cautious but bullish sentiment for next year’s soybean crop, irrespective of fees, a “zero-cost,” hedging strategy is achievable which allows for 25 cents of upside profit potential from the current futures price , with protection on the downside just 15 cents lower. This strategy is possible due to the implied volatility skew to the upside common in grain …
Using Options and Technical Analysis in a Soybean Countertrend Strategy
After a rally in Soybeans uncharacteristic for this time of the year, the Nov 19 soybean futures currently trading at 930, could be poised to make a potential near-term move to test the key 961-963 resistance area. Should this happen, an interesting counter trend speculative or hedging strategy, could consist of the sale of the Nov. 2020, 1100 – 1200 …