The soy complex has bounced a bit after the latest USDA numbers showing record carry domestically and record globally. This whole thing in my opinion does not add up. The Chinese apparently booked 500 ton of US beans. It is immaterial if they book 5 mmt of beans. The US will still have a minimum of 750 million bushels in …
Feeder Cattle Option Strategy
Feeder Cattle has a solid bid and going forward, in my opinion, can potentially rally to 151.00/151.5 area. I am looking at MARCH 2019 Feeder Cattle, 145.5 last as of this writing. Weight count per cow is 2 pounds less in 2018 than this time last year and demand is up as well, while the 2019 head count is around the …
Last Half of December
It appears that the market has discounted the large Brazilian bean crop coming to market in a few months as hopes are starting to increase that a trade agreement with China might be reached before the end of the “truce time” set to end in early March 2019……………………Nothing is certain yet new news could be seen as having a …
December Crop Report
December Crop Report The USDA releases its December 1 Supply/Demand tomorrow at 11:00 Chicago time! Historically, it’s a sleeper yet, surprises may occur and we treat all government reports as dangerous! But, if one was going into any report with an attitude that there shouldn’t be any surprises….the December report is the report to do it! World unrest continues and …
Livestock Report
February Lean Hogs broke down and traded to the lower end of its trading range, while the cattle markets rallied, trading to the upper part of their respective trading ranges. Lean Hogs tested the 200 DMA (65.10) today, trading to the low at 64.975 and settling just above the 200 DMA at 65.20. With positive news lacking on the trade …
Livestock Report
Strong cash cattle sales at 119.00 on a live basis and up to 187.00 for dressed on Friday couldn’t ignite futures today as cattle futures continued its lackluster trading. February Live Cattle pulled back to support at 120.75, making the low just above it at 120.775. A break down below support could see price move towards support at 119.15. A …
Headlines and Volatility
MACRO BACKDROP: Good Monday, readers. I’ll be very brief with my take on the equities today. I believe I mentioned last week that volatility for many stocks was going to be very apparent as we head into the end of the year for a few reasons. As equities digested the, seemingly, positive implications from the G20 summit, it appears …
Grain Spreads: Wheat Demand
Finally! Someone bought some US Wheat. While we have seen Egypt tip their toe in the water and make two small purchases over the last 45 days, it was a purchase by unknown destinations that buoyed the market overnight into this morning. Exporters this AM also sold 224,000 MTs of HRW to an unknown destination. Concern over availability of high quality …
5YR NOTE FUTURES AND OPTIONS STRATEGY
Treasury movements, upcoming Fed events, and economic reports indicate in my opinion that the 5yr yield will pull back from the current 2.74% yield as of this writing to 2.57% yield. The MARCH 2019 5yr note trading 113.14 as of this writing can potentially move higher toward the 114.25 area and possibly 115.12 area in my opinion. The nonfarm payroll …
Livestock Report
In a light trading session February Live Cattle continued its break out to the upside, trading to a new high at 122.55 just below resistance at 122.825. Continued upward pressure could see price test resistance at 124.30. A pullback from the high could see price fall back into the 121.625 – 118.575 trading range. January Feeder Cattle continued its recovery …