The snow and cold temperatures passing through the Plains the next few days continues to be a headache for corn while wheat benefits from the moisture and it is unlikely that temperatures will dip deep enough for long enough to deal damage to the crop at this stage of development. Duh! Tomorrow’s supply/demand figures are expected to reveal an …
Weather Sensitive
It’s starting to get serious as per planting delays on corn. Given the abundant old crop stocks we’ve got the cushion to overcome a little less yield and fewer acres which might develop if we stay damp for another month. Things might get a lot more serious if it appears that corn might not get planted until late May. …
Not Serious Yet!
Planting delays may start getting serious two weeks from now. We may start seeing a little bit more option and spread activity. Maybe we’ll start to see some more buying interest in the July 2020 and September 2020 corn contracts with selling a little more nearby and long away? Might as well start talking about the rise in volcanic …
Livestock Report
June Lean Hogs continued its rally today, gap opening higher and never looking back reaching the session high at the end of the day at 95.075. This is just below the 95.30 resistance level and puts this level on notice for trading for Thursday. If price can trade above here on the open, another strong rally could take us …
Midweek Ramblings
The quinoa, kale and gasless cow crowd might be getting their wish as we’ve wiped out a lot of calves in the West and the soggy soil might delay corn plantings. Might equate to more quinoa acres planted and kale might take over as ditch weed. I don’t know if anyone wins in this scenario? Trade agreements and …
Livestock Report
On Monday, the June Lean Hogs broke down and tested the 50% retracement level (87.0625) of the all-time high (133.425) and the October 2016 low (40.70). It poked through it and traded down to the low at 86.25. It was a successful test as it rallied and settled above it at 88.50. This is above the key technical level …
Working in Mud and Muck
We’re at that time of year and that phase of crop development when anything can happen and funds are short and farmers are long and we’re waiting to see how it plays out. There was every reason to pummel the wheat market today as the warm and wet forecast for the Heartland is perfect for the crop at this …
Grain Spreads: Wipe Out
Friday’s prospective plantings and stocks in all positions report laid out two major surprises and they were both in Corn. Before I begin, this report was dated March 1, 2019 so I’m pretty sure the USDA did not factor in potential acreage losses from the mass flooding in Nebraska and Iowa. The biggest surprise to many in the trade was …
Ready to Plant
Is a Chinese Trade Deal signing bullish or already in the market? Some say that everything comes out in the wash and if they couldn’t or wouldn’t purchase US origin grains and oilseed other exporters would happily fill the void. There’s always a finite number of bushels in the world and traders know logistics and pipeline inventory and know …
Sky Watching/Big Cushion
The numbers are history. Time to focus on the weather. Wow! Lots of corn around! Wheat conditions might have been a little too wet to date yet, there the ingredients are present to bring in a quality crop in a few months. All will be well if we don’t get too cold when we head and experience hot and/or …