TIMBER: May Lumber Futures

John LunneyGeneral Commentary

May Lumber Futures I have spent some considerably time delving into the structural landscape of the lumber futures market. When employing top down analysis it is necessary to first address the long term dominant time-frame price charts. I began with the monthly which extends to 1972, the beginning of the contract’s life. I have managed to map out what I …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzoGeneral Commentary, Livestock

Live Cattle On Monday, April 9, 2018, the June Live Cattle contract tested the 104.20 – 104.85 resistance range, reaching 104.60 for the high of the day. Once again resistance held and Live Cattle plummeted to the low, trading down to 102.10. It settled near the low at 102.50. A breakdown on Tuesday below the Monday low could see price …

Grain Spreads

Sean LuskGeneral Commentary

Soy Complex It’s as if the tariff talk never occurred last week with this push higher in beans and we are back to trading weather events both at home and abroad along with demand. Speaking of demand,net sales for future shipment from last Thursdays export sales report came in at 1,133,000 MT for 2017/2018 and up noticeably from the previous …

The Wild Wild West: June Live Cattle

John LunneyGeneral Commentary

June Live Cattle         Load up the six-shooters for this market which is whipping around like a rattlesnake on peyote. The daily ATR (average true range) as of last Friday reached 2.950, nearly a limit move, surpassing the contracts high established in the late summer of 2017. Following the clobbering they took to 102.050 on Friday the …

Grain Spreads

Sean LuskGeneral Commentary

Soy Complex To say its been one of the more volatile weeks for beans would be an understatement. The weekly range was 76.6 cents basis May futures.  Tariff talk, saber-rattling, weather both in north and South America have funds, specs, and hedgers spinning their wheels as volatility reigns. The backbone to me for the continued rallies from the dips in …

True Grit : May Feeder Cattle

John LunneyGeneral Commentary

May Feeder Cattle      The May feeders displayed some real grit in the last two sessions. After failing to hold a major technical level in last week’s final session the dogies managed keep it together at the previously  identified second tier save level. This location at roughly 110.500 is a geometric convergence zone with both sloping lines dating back …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzoGeneral Commentary, Livestock

Live Cattle It was a wild day in the June Live Cattle contract on Wednesday, April 4, 2018. It gap (Tuesday low – 99.55 to Wednesday open – 98.925) opened lower and broke down below support (97.375) making another new low for the move at 97.075. It reversed direction from here and soared. It closed the gap and consolidated and …

Grain Spreads

Sean LuskGeneral Commentary

At 3.00 AM central time Chicago, the Chinese announced retaliatory tariffs against a litany of U.S. products namely Soy and Corn. The announcement immediately sent corn, beans, and wheat spiraling lower amid light overnight volume. Technical damage was done and stop losses initiated. Beans broke 55 cents, Corn 16 and all wheat classes over 10 lower at one point. Early …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzoGeneral Commentary, Livestock

Live Cattle The June Live Cattle contract continued on its downward spiral on Tuesday, April 3, 2018. It broke down below support (100.275) and made its way toward the 99.375 support level, making the low at 99.55. Rallies have been weak and the selling persistent. If this continues and Live Cattle breaks the 99.375 support level on Wednesday we could …

Cold as a Wagon Tire ? : April Live Cattle

John LunneyGeneral Commentary

April Live Cattle      ” Cold as a wagon tire” is a western slang meaning dead. In today’s trading session the market failed to establish any sort of conviction as it finished slightly lower to 112.100. If they call that an attempt to prove their stability by withstanding any continued selling pressure I remain unimpressed. As touched upon in …