Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzoGeneral Commentary

Walsh Trading Daily Insights


April Lean Hogs followed through to the upside early in the trading session making the session high at 88.325 which is right at resistance at 88.325. Price couldn’t handle success and broke down, trading to the session low at 86.20 and it drifted the rest of the session to settle near the low at 86.45. The cash market was mixed early as cutouts were lower and cash was higher. The indices were both nominally higher on Friday, which hopefully means pricing power is coming back to the markets. We’ll see…. The thing is… futures, with the early rally to resistance is just way out of whack with the indices (in my opinion) …. Hence the what I call the snap back in futures. Its Friday, price rallied hard off a new low for April made Thursday) as the lead contract and well I don’t want to hold them over the weekend…. Get me out. The breakdown took price below the key level at 87.10 and settlement was below it. Price needs to reclaim that level (in my opinion) as soon as possible Monday morning. If Hogs hold settlement, we could test resistance at 87.10. Resistance then comes in at 88.325. A failure from settlement could see price re-test support at the confluence of key levels. The rising 8-DMA is at 85.775, the 50-DMA is at 85.70, the key level is at 85.325 and then the 100-DMA at 85.15. This must hold (in my opinion) or we could test support at the declining 21-DMA 83.875.  Support then comes in at 83.325.

The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 80.12 as of 01/26/2023.

The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 72.52 as of 01/25/2023.

Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 487,000 which is above last week’s 485,000 and last year’s 463,000. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 95,000, which is below last week’s 220,000 and last year’s 194,000. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 2,536,000, which is above last week’s 2,531,000 and last year’s 2,530,000.

For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursdays (except holiday weeks) and our next webinar will be on Thursday, February 2, 2022 at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163


Fax: 312.256.0109

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