Beans ignited 15 cents on the open this morning forging a top at 858 basis November while Dec Meal rallied to 316. However as with previous rallies in beans and meal, selling emerged on the rally and beans finished the day at 845 while meal fell below weekly resistance at 310.3 to settle at 309. The rally this morning came …
AG TIME – The Ups and Downs
The beans and meal were up sharply early. The why, in my opinion, the Argentinian country is essentially on strike. Transport in the mix. This is not unusual and typically lasts for a relatively short period. Getting back to the reality of the market. The Argentinian is buying US beans at will. They will either mark them up and sell …
Olive Line Signals
ARP Learn to disregard news stories that can’t assist your trading. This morning it was reported by Bloomberg news that China is taking out ads in the Des Moines register to influence the farm lobby in Iowa. In Rural America. This is getting crazy in my opinion. Last week Rick Santelli of CNBC spoke about the Central Bank telling parliament …
AG TIME – Looking for Some Changes
The soy mixed today. The oil remains strong, meal did struggle. There are some thoughts regarding this. The macro picture is cheap beans. The US being the cheapest. We are actually allowing everyone, most importantly, Argentina to buy all the US beans they want then crush them and sell the meal. This ultimately will create a bearish protein scenario, in …
Grain Spreads: Month/Quarter End Coming
Due to big bean and corn crops seemingly coming on the horizon as harvest is underway in the Midwest, we have seen corn and bean prices jump prior to next weeks quarterly stocks report while wheat held steady into the weekend. In years past when we have seen burgeoning supply situations prior to harvest, we have seen funds pile on …
Livestock Report – Cattle on Feed
United States Cattle on Feed Up 6 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on September 1, 2018. The inventory was 6 percent above September 1, 2017. This is the highest September 1 inventory since the series began in …
AG TIME – ASF ITS EXPANDING
The markets were very interesting to me today. The question is – will there be follow through next week? Many thoughts here. First, there was a new case of African swine fever found in China. This was in a new province. The key aspect to me here is not the number of animals, but the fact it is spreading great …
AG TIME – A Rally Opportunity
Apparently the funds are buying beans because they are cheap? Whatever that means. As I have said, a nice rally in beans should be welcomed. The beans at levels on the board if, and I say if, they were hedged months ago, equate to a tidy profit with the one time govt payment (1.65 reported). This rally in my opinion …
Important Wheat Dates
Looking ahead the wheat market gets to decipher the stocks report on September 28 and then the Supply/Demand estimates in October, November and December and then the mother of all reports in January 2019 when we’ll get the final production figures, supply/demand, stocks in-all-positions as of December 1, 2018 and winter wheat seeding……………………………………………. We’ll also work through the …
AG TIME – Move The Calendar Up
The soy is getting a bounce today. There are a couple reasons this could be transpiring. There may be some bottom picking. The market has broken a lot. Another scenario could be a thought that the China US relations could find some common ground. Food for thought. Let’s look at some real life scenarios playing out. The Brazilian planting is …