The usda released the June report today. It is important to note that the one thing now that matters to participants is the weather. Until the forecast has a meaningful change the need for risk premium remains. The numbers on their own are bearish. Record global production. Growing domestic carryovers. This before we see a acreage shift. The avg guess are 500 t – 1 million more acres. Some guess high as 2 million more. The long term point without a weather threat the markets are bearish . The oilshare is sitting in a interesting spot. Their is still a opportunity to see significant gains here,in my humble opinion.
Looking in small detail the acreage is 89.5 planted look for 90.5, The yield remains in flux, it is to early. crush reduced 15 million to 1910 mil, further reductions ? The meal off take is weak. projected carryover 495 could be 600. with a 1 million acre increase. also,yield is assumed 4 bu lower than last year. As I have been saying there is potential for big moves. Exercise caution. Quantify the risk
Be Well