The USDA report was a non event I guess. I am surprised that some analysts called the bean report friendly. Some of these comments have me questioning what I think I know from a historic perspective. The US carry is 910 million bushels. a 22% stu ratio. Up from 300 in 16/17. That is a 3 times number in two years. The global numbers are a record at 107 mmt. Up from 95 mmt two years earlier. These numbers are so far from the historic norm. It is my thought that people want to believe in a bull market badly. The USDA farm price 810-910. The 810 seems fairly realistic in my opinion. The Chinese are reducing imports not increasing. The USDA added to crush. Why? With Argentina back on track they will be crushing to the wall. The exports raised ? Why with China reducing. The US exports are overstated as well as the crush in my opinion. Spring will fast approach. With these prices it is unlikely to see a switch to Corn Acres.
The Corn was neutral to friendly in my opinion. And we still closed lower. The march tested 382 a was shot backwards. There is disappointment that the carry was not reduced further. Given the overall stcks to usage domestic corn numbers remain friendly in my opinion. The global stocks are ample. The important thing of note is that the Chinese hold 67% of the stocks. That leaves little room for error. Also , The acreage needs a increase that Im not sure we will get. I remain friendly corn with one more rally yet to unfold in my opinion.
800 993 5449 will get you to me jwalsh@walshtrading.com to discuss thoughts
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