Good Day Producers and Speculators,
The comments below are all my opinions. If you are trading always use a risk stop or the risk can become uncontrollable. These are volatile markets.
So let’s recap as we assess the impact of when markets hit these olive extreme’s like 3 weeks ago down by previous months lows. We were looking for a monthly reversal up to buy KWU 4.73, CZ 3.52. When funds sold short they did into long term trend lines in those areas also.
I described how olive lines that hold can produce a fast vertical move in other direction catching most of the recent price range. The trader psychology in my view has them selling, citing lower levels because it went too deep before. In my view everyone wants to sell corn on this rally. I get it, but if you’re selling under $4 why didn’t you sell on that late planting bogus news with funds record long and ols 4.29 & 424 in late May?
So big picture (we can’t trade this way) I potentially see 40% swings becoming even more commonplace. Should we utilize 1 lot option rules? In my view get something on the books to buy cheap premium when we see potential turns, my advice but with certain guidelines. Thoughts to entertain maybe?
In my opinion buy wheat using my support levels (trendlines). If looking for $7 or more. Nov 18 beans has macro here 887 and 885. Algo’s pivot and you look out either way when viewing these well illuminated charts.
End of August much less bullish beans.
FCX had 4 levels this week’s low -+.35c and held. This just broke 650 points and few like bull cattle. I do not know what every level will produce. It might only be a dead cat bounce, but it potentially shows trend and index funds think alike as you become more familiar. Wheat had a 6.08, held 1 bar, blasts over on EU rumors of, wheat tax news item then denied late Thursday. Hey fundamental guys. Last 3 weeks changed quite a bit hasn’t it? Long term guys now load inflation pipeline.
We bottomed on that March 31 JBS blow-out, higher on year now?
I would not sell cattle short with your money. I don’t know much about cattle fundamentals, my specialty is the technical set-ups. I think that’s my best asset. Olive Algo guys don’t either.
One more break on (wall of cattle?) happened at the OLB 137 already. This is how I see this behaviorally effecting human trader emotion. What I mean is Mute the news and trade the charts. Like corn now.
In my view speculators and hedgers are being played by the high frequency trading HFT,
Robots? In my view the public and Ag community all want to sell cattle just like corn. That’s my take on it.
Trade the olive lines? This is the 3 week trader rule and then take a vacation. Hit them fast and run.
You must have patience.
Best Always,
Alan R. Palmer
Phone: 312.957.8248 or 888.391.7894
Email: arp@walshtrading.com