For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays. My next webinar will be Tuesday, March 10, 2026, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
Recent Friday trade sessions haven’t been good for the cattle markets and this Friday’s trade was no different. The cattle markets took another haymaker to the chin this Friday, getting knocked down and they weren’t able to bounce back, settling near the lows of the day. Cattle markets reacted badly to outside market price action as Equity markets were pummeled while energy markets surged. The war with Iran continued to create volatile markets as the uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz closure and inability of ships to pass through created fear in the cattle markets. With the downward push of Equity markets and surge in Crude Oil and other energy markets, traders fear consumers wouldn’t ever eat beef again as gas prices are surging in response to the rally in the energy markets. The people are feeling the pain of the weak Equity markets and won’t be able to afford expensive beef. With cattle prices at near record prices and the packer pulling back on slaughter numbers, traders fear with all this outside panic the consumer will pull back and eat cereal for dinner instead of beef as the cutout rises in response to the slowdown in slaughter. Hogs didn’t respond in kind even as their cutouts look toppy as it nears recent highs. The packer took advantage of the weak futures price, getting cash prices to fall for the second week in a row after establishing new all-time highs. At least the focus wasn’t on a potential strike at the Greeley plant in Colorado. The packer saw cutouts surge this week to prices not seen since the fall with the choice peaking this week at 388.57, ending the week slightly below this high. It is always amazing how they are somehow able to keep cutouts higher as the rest of the market crashes because of outside interference in the psychology of the futures trader. With strong price action in Live Cattle since the Monday gap open crash until Thursday, cattle looked like it would have a strong bullish pattern for the weekly chart if we were able to maintain the Thursday high. The crash on Friday took that idea away and keeps traders and producers on edge. April Cattle made its high at 239.05, testing resistance at the declining 21-DMA now at 238.50. The breakdown took cattle below the rising 50-DMA now at 236.65 to the low at 233.675. It settled near the low at 234.575. This breakdown puts support at 232.75 and the flat 100-DMA now at 232.125 in traders’ crosshairs. A breakdown below here could see price test support at 230.425 and then the rising 200-DMA now at 228.55. Feeder Cattle Made its high at 359.55, testing resistance at 358.875 and the rising 50-DMA now at 359.225. The collapse took price to support at 350.20, with the low just above it at 350.375. Settlement was at 351.625. If Feeder cattle can hold settlement, it could see price test resistance at 354.55. Resistance then comes in at the 50-DMA. A breakdown from the low could see price test support at the 100-DMA, now at 348.175. Support then comes in at 344.675.
The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 367.32 as of 03/06/2026.
Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts increased 0.33 to 387.22 and select decreased 1.66 to 378.95. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 8.27 and the load count was 65.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 88,000, which is below last week’s 89,000 and last year’s 108,457. Saturday slaughter is expected to be zero, which is below last week’ 3,000 and last year’s 3,054. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 521,000, which is above last week’s 519,000 and below last year’s 579,267.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle. The last established market test in the Texas Panhandle was last week with live purchases at mostly 244.00. Negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate to good demand in Kansas. The last established market test in Kansas was last week with live purchases at 244.00. Negotiated cash trade has been active on good demand in Nebraska. Live purchases have been generally 2.00 lower at 240.00 when compared to last weeks range. Dressed purchases have been 3.00 lower at 380.00 when compared to last weeks market test in Nebraska. Negotiated cash trade has been moderate on good demand in the Western Cornbelt. Compared to last week in the Western Cornbelt, live purchases have been 3.00 lower at 240.00 and dressed purchases have been 2.00-3.00 lower at 380.00 compared to last weeks light test.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 239.00 – 242.00 and from 375.00 – 380.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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