Soybeans–
Soybeans were lower again today after gaining 3/4 of a cent in the overnight session. Soybeans have been selling off since making a high at 1169 1/2 in mid-November. There were 3 cargoes of US beans sold to China yesterday. China has now booked over half of its 12 mmt commitment. The real is weakening versus the dollar, which may have a negative effect on US exports. Conditions in Brazil are improving, while Argentina will have a chance of rain in the forecast this weekend. COT data is catching up to the current date. As of December 2, managed money was long 215k contracts, after buying 1k contracts. Open interest is falling but not enough to infer funds have flipped their large net long position to a net short position.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1052 (-6), high of 1061, low of 1051. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1062 (-6), high of 1071, low of 1060. Cash price is at 1030 (-4)
January Bean Meal (ZMF26) settled at 298.4 (+0.2) high of 300.7, low of 297.5
January Bean Oil (ZLF26)) settled at 48.11 (-0.41) high of 48.82, low of 48.01
Meal to Oil ratio (55.375% Meal – 44.625% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1064) 5-day, (1102) 20-day, (1094) 50-day, (1069) 100-day, (1054) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1074) 5-day, (1112) 20-day, (1105) 50-day, (1082) 100-day, (1065) 200-day
ZMF26 Moving Averages – (301.0) 5-day, (309.3) 20-day, (307.5) 50-day, (297.9) 100-day, (301.1) 200-day
ZLF26 Moving Averages – (48.91) 5-day, (50.73) 20-day, (50.75) 50-day, (51.56) 100-day, (50.49) 200-day
CORN –
March ’26 Corn settled at 444 (+4) (ZCH26) high of 446, low of 440. May ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 452 (+4). Cash price is 437 (+4)
Corn was higher on the day, after trading 1 1/2 cents higher in the overnight session. COT data as of December 2 shows managed money has a 23k net long position in corn, after adding 34k contracts. The corn chart looks very strong, as corn bounced off the 100-day moving average yesterday. It seems likely corn can move higher from here. Price just needs to bounce past the 200-day moving average at 446 and the psychological resistance at 450. Low water levels on the MS river may impact exports in the near-term. Corn exports the week ending November 27 were 1.7 mmt, at 56.8% of the USDA forecast. Meanwhile, weekly ethanol production yesterday made a record high at 1.126 mb.
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (440) 5-day, (442) 20-day, (441) 50-day, (437) 100-day, (446) 200-day
ZCK26 Moving Averages – (448) 5-day, (450) 20-day, (450) 50-day, (446) 100-day, (455) 200-day
WHEAT –
March Chicago Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 507 (+1), with a high of 510, low of 505. May ‘26 Wheat (ZWK26) settled at 518 (+1). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 503 (-6). March KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 517 (+9).
Wheat traded higher on the day, after a trading 3/4 cents lower in the overnight. Argentina’s wheat is still the cheapest in the world. Yesterday, China cancelled its purchase of US wheat in favor of Argentina. COT data shows funds short 43k wheat contacts, after buying nearly 10k contracts. Despite the higher trade today, wheat still looks poor technically. March wheat is trading below its 14, 21, 100, and 200-day moving average and is now trading 15 cents off its low from mid-October. It’s possible that we’re seeing a bullish triple bottom pattern forming on the March wheat chart. However, fundamentals are overwhelmingly bearish, so a new contract low may be more likely.
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (514) 5-day, (531) 20-day, (535) 50-day, (539) 100-day, (569) 200-day
ZWK26 Moving Averages – (524) 5-day, (539) 20-day, (545) 50-day, (549) 100-day, (580) 200-day
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hschmit@walshtrading.com
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