Soybeans–
Trump is meeting with Xi tonight, so more important trade developments should be coming out soon. Soybeans sold off some today, but soybean meal continues to trade higher. China has reportedly only bought 3 cargoes of US soybeans. US Gulf and PNW export bids are rising due to China demand. If a deal is confirmed there is no guarantees that China holds up their end of the deal, especially for this year’s purchases. China may buy soybeans over say the next 5 years but hold off on big purchases over the next 3 months. Despite the framework for a deal, headline risk remains.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1094 (-0.50), high of 1098, low of 1085. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1105 (-1), high of 1108, low of 1097. Cash price is at 1045 (+12)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 308.7 (+2.2) high of 311.7, low of 304.1
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 50.16 (-0.10) high of 50.44, low of 49.56
Meal to Oil ratio (55.2% Meal – 44.8% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1079) 5-day, (1047) 20-day, (1049) 50-day, (1045) 100-day, (1044) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1091) 5-day, (1061) 20-day, (1064) 50-day, (1059) 100-day, (1053) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (300) 5-day, (284.3) 20-day, (284.4) 50-day, (286.8) 100-day, (299.7) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.47) 5-day, (50.63) 20-day, (51.24) 50-day, (52.45) 100-day, (49.42) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 434 (+2), high of 435, low of 430. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 446 (+0.50). Cash price is 420 (+3)
Corn moved higher again today, after Trump announced a trade deal with South Korea. Corn is seeing some short covering with the recent rally. Open interest fell by 11,500 contracts yesterday. Corn keeps breaking resistance levels and is seeing technical buying, The corn belt is expected to see below normal rainfall over the next 2 weeks as harvest finishes up. Harvest is estimated at 72% complete versus 81% at this time last year. China has faced issues with corn harvesting this year. It is not expected but China may decide to buy US corn. US corn is still the cheapest origin.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (429) 5-day, (421) 20-day, (420) 50-day, (420) 100-day, (437) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (443) 5-day, (436) 20-day, (436) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (451) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 532 (+3), with a high of 533, low of 526. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 547 (+2). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 510 (+3). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 522 (+2).
Wheat was slightly lower in the overnight session, but traded 4 1/2 cents higher during today’s session. Wheat continues to rally due to short covering. Bearish sentiment for wheat looks to be priced in, the bottom could be in. Wheat prices are now more expensive for export, in the US, than Russian and French wheat due to this rally. Higher prices could slow exports some going forward. Russian exports could be affected by oil sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, LSEG raised its production estimate for Australia’s wheat production by 2% due to favorable weather.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (522) 5-day, (509) 20-day, (517) 50-day, (538) 100-day, (568) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (538) 5-day, (525) 20-day, (534) 50-day, (556) 100-day, (586) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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