Soybeans–
Soybeans traded slightly lower today, after a 5 cent gain in the overnight session. After some doubt last week, Trump is expected to meet with Xi at the end of the month. After a long period of back-and-forth trade negotiations Trump and Xi need to find a way to make a deal. Neither China or the US would benefit from ending trade long-term. Reuters estimates harvest at 73% complete, compared to Bloomberg at 74%, and 81% complete a year ago. US soybeans are seeing strong buying from countries outside China, yet inspections year-to-date are down over 30%. Top US soybean buyers last week were Mexico, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Egypt. Brazil has had favorable weather for their new crop soybeans planting and pace is ahead of the 5-year average and last year’ pace. Soybean meal is showing strength, even with heavy supply. Into 2026, the oil share likely increases and soybean oil can see a major bounce.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1050 (-1.5), high of 1051, low of 1037. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1064 (-1), high of 1065, low of 1051. Cash price is at 994 (+14)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 285 (+4.0) high of 285.8, low of 280.3
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 51.31 (+0.18) high of 51.46, low of 50.95
Meal to Oil ratio (52.63% Meal – 47.37% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1032) 5-day, (1032) 20-day, (1047) 50-day, (1043) 100-day, (1043) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1047) 5-day, (1047) 20-day, (1062) 50-day, (1057) 100-day, (1051) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (278.6) 5-day, (276.6) 20-day, (284.0) 50-day, (287.7) 100-day, (300.6) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.94) 5-day, (50.47) 20-day, (51.58) 50-day, (52.26) 100-day, (49.15) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 423 (+0.75), high of 424, low of 419. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 437 (+0.50). Cash price is 411 (+0.75)
Corn seems stuck near 420 after the move up from 410. Harvest pressure is likely the reason corn is consolidating. Exports for last week were fairly average, but corn exports have been strong up 60% from last year. Mexico continues to be a buyer of US corn. The American Petroleum Institute is saying they no longer support E-15 sales year-round, which hurts the ethanol industry. Brazil weather has been good for new crop corn planting. Brazil’s corn planting is above last year’s pace. There’s strong resistance for corn at 424 and 430. If corn can break the high for the move at 431, corn could see 440-450.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (420) 5-day, (419) 20-day, (416) 50-day, (420) 100-day, (443) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (435) 5-day, (435) 20-day, (433) 50-day, (437) 100-day, (452) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 504 (+1), with a high of 507, low of 502. March ‘26 Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 521 (+1). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 486 (+1). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 490 (-1).
Wheat traded 4 cents lower today, after a very slight drop in the overnight session. Wheat is still sitting above the 500 resistance level.
Exports for wheat have been solid. Year-to-date wheat exports are up over 20%, but domestic stocks and global supply are still burdensome. The area wheat is trading in seems to be an attractive level for importers of US wheat. IKAR raised their estimate for the Russian wheat crop by 0.5 mt to 88 mt, adding to the bearish sentiment. There’s still not COT reports, but managed money likely has a short position over 100,000.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (502) 5-day, (509) 20-day, (519) 50-day, (542) 100-day, (571) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (518) 5-day, (527) 20-day, (536) 50-day, (560) 100-day, (589) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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