Soybeans–
Soybeans are starting to rally. The higher move today comes after a 9 3/4 cent gain in the overnight session. The US government seems to be putting a bigger emphasis on the China issue, and soybean exports are seeing wider media coverage. There seems to be a lot of optimism towards completing a deal with China. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that one Chinese negotiator was unhinged and inflexible, which caused China to remove him from trade talks. Last week, Ag Secretary Rollins mentioned a possible deal that would allow US soybeans to be crushed in South America. More details should be provided soon. January soybean meal traded 3.80 higher today
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1019 (+8), high of 1021, low of 1010. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1036 (+8), high of 1038, low of 1028. Cash price is at 980 (+9)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 281.0 (-0.7) high of 281.7, low of 277
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 51.13 (+0.26) high of 51.22, low of 50.35
Meal to Oil ratio (52.36% Meal – 47.64% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1010) 5-day, (1013) 20-day, (1027) 50-day, (1025) 100-day, (1029) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1027) 5-day, (1031) 20-day, (1046) 50-day, (1043) 100-day, (1043) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (276.4) 5-day, (276.4) 20-day, (284.0) 50-day, (287.9) 100-day, (300.8) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.79) 5-day, (50.39) 20-day, (51.61) 50-day, (52.24) 100-day, (49.10) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 422 (+1.50), high of 424, low of 421. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 436 (+1). Cash price is 418 (+0.75)
Corn went from down 2 cents to closing a 1 1/2 higher. The dollar is higher than it was in mid-September, but corn is still competitive in the export market. Harvest is moving along at a solid pace, especially in the western Corn Belt, and is roughly halfway done. Rains slowed harvest pace some over the weekend in the eastern belt. Harvest weather is expected to be largely favorable for the rest of the week. Trump made some negative comments about Columbia over the weekend. If this becomes a bigger story, Columbia may decide to switch their corn imports to other South America countries. This could become a problem as Columbia is one of the top US corn buyers.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (419) 5-day, (419) 20-day, (416) 50-day, (421) 100-day, (437) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (434) 5-day, (435) 20-day, (433) 50-day, (437) 100-day, (452) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 503 (+1), with a high of 505, low of 500. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 520 (+1). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 485 (+1). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 491 (+2).
Wheat traded slightly higher today. Wheat is above the round number resistance at 500 again. Despite seeing some buying, wheat has had a fairly tight trading range. If there is some short covering in this market, some larger moves could be ahead. There’s reports that some countries want to start stockpiling grain reserves, which could boost exports. Pakistan wants to create a 6.2 mt stockpile, while Sweden also reported a similar plan. The idea is that these countries want a reserve stockpile in case of war. This trend may continue in other countries threatened by Russia. Trump plans to meet with Putin in Budapest in the next couple weeks. It is looking like the bottom may be in for wheat.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (500) 5-day, (509) 20-day, (519) 50-day, (543) 100-day, (571) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (517) 5-day, (527) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (561) 100-day, (589) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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