Soybeans–
Soybeans traded 10 cents higher today, after trading 3 1/2 cents higher in the overnight session. The market seems to be optimistic about a meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi in the next 2 weeks. With US soybeans at a discount to Brazil, there has been talk of China selling of 3.5 mt of reserve soybeans instead of buying more from South America. Secretary Rollins said yesterday that the USDA is considering crushing some US soybeans in South America as a way to rely less on Chinese purchases. The leader of Argentina was at the White House yesterday, and Brazil’s Lula is expected to meet with Trump in the coming days. The US and Argentina are working on finalizing a $20B bailout/currency swap. There is definitely some work being done behind the scenes with the South Americans and with China. The next couple weeks should have some big headlines regarding trade.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1010 (-4), high of 1013, low of 1006. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1029 (-3), high of 1032, low of 1025. Cash price is at 972 (+1)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 268.1 (-0.7) high of 271.3, low of 267.1
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 49.11 (-0.49) high of 49.60, low of 48.84
The September Meal to Oil ratio (51.72% Meal – 48.28% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1011) 5-day, (1028) 20-day, (1025) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1027) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1030) 5-day, (1047) 20-day, (1044) 50-day, (1046) 100-day, (1041) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (270.5) 5-day, (279.8) 20-day, (280.8) 50-day, (287.2) 100-day, (299.4) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (49.42) 5-day, (50.63) 20-day, (52.58) 50-day, (51.89) 100-day, (48.31) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 421 (-0.50), high of 422, low of 418. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 438 (-0.25). Cash price is 418 (+1)
Corn is now trading above the 21-day moving average, after today’s higher close. Corn seems to be waiting for some positive news so it can rally. Corn has had a tighter trading range through harvest, which is estimated at 50% complete. Hedge pressure likely hits its peak next week. There was no October WASDE due to the government shutdown. The next WASDE report is expected to show a lower yield. Farmers in Mexico are protesting because of low corn prices. Mexican farmers have threatened to stop planting if the government fails to step in. If the Mexican government decides to reduce corn imports from the US that could weigh on prices. Mexico is the top buyer of US corn.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (424) 5-day, (422) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (425) 100-day, (439) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (440) 5-day, (440) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (441) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 519 (-1), with a high of 522, low of 516. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 537 (-0.50). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 464 (-7). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 508 (+2).
Wheat closed a cent lower today, after trading down 2 1/2 cents in the overnight session. Tomorrow’s grain stocks report has an average estimate of 2.043 bb. The low end of estimates for wheat stocks is 1.954 bb and the highest estimate is 2.135 bb. Last year’s September Grain Stocks report had wheat stocks at 1.992 bb. Russia’s exports for the first 3 months of its marketing year hit 11 mt, which is the lowest level on record for that time period over the last 4 years. Meanwhile, Ukraine is done with harvest. Ukraine’s production was 22.5 mt, which 1% lower y/oy. The funds continue to sell the wheat market. Managed money traders added 12k contracts to their net short in wheat, with some small buying in KC wheat. Australia, Russia, and the EU have strong crops, however there’s a better chance of a larger move with a trend reversal to the upside.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (521) 5-day, (522) 20-day, (531) 50-day, (551) 100-day, (577) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (539) 5-day, (539) 20-day, (549) 50-day, (570) 100-day, (595) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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