Soybeans–
Rumors of China buying US soybeans during the government shutdown sent soybeans higher today. Export sales were not reported during the shutdown. NASS crush numbers were also not reported yesterday. StoneX gave a new estimate for soybean yield at 53.9 bpa, compared to the USDA at 53.2 bpa. Argentina is seeing a drop in planted area for soybeans, down 4.5% y/oy. Production is now estimated at 47.7 mt, which is 6.9% lower than last year. Harvest conditions are expected to be favorable in the Midwest over the next week. Next week, the forecast shows chances for rain in the central Midwest.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1023 (+10), high of 1025, low of 1008. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1041 (+10), high of 1043, low of 1026. Cash price is at 970 (+11)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 279.3 (+5.7) high of 279.9, low of 272.2
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 50.44 (+0.02) high of 50.75, low of 49.98
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.55% Meal – 47.45% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1012) 5-day, (1025) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1029) 100-day, (1027) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1031) 5-day, (1044) 20-day, (1043) 50-day, (1046) 100-day, (1041) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (275.2) 5-day, (281.5) 20-day, (284.8) 50-day, (291.2) 100-day, (302.9) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (50.05) 5-day, (50.84) 20-day, (52.54) 50-day, (52.20) 100-day, (48.56) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 421 (+5), high of 422, low of 414. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 438 (+5). Cash price is 406 (-11)
The rumor about China buying US soybeans helped corn close higher. President Trump announced yesterday that he would be meeting with China’s Xi next month and corn and soybeans will be one of the scheduled discussion topics. The weekly ethanol report was released yesterday, showing production hitting a 5-month low and stocks fell more than expected. StoneX lowered their estimate for corn yield to 185.9 bpa, from 186.9 bpa, compared to what the USDA gave in September at 186.7 bpa. StoneX has Argentina’s production at 54.2 mt, compared to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s estimate at 58 mt. The 6-10 day forecast shows elevated chances for rain in the Plains and parts of the Midwest, in the short-term harvest weather is expected to remain favorable.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (419) 5-day, (422) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (424) 100-day, (439) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (436) 5-day, (439) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (440) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 514 (+5), with a high of 516, low of 508. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 532 (+5). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 462 (+7). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 499 (+3).
Wheat traded higher along with the rest of the grains, after closing 1 cent higher in the overnight session. Trading volume has been picking up in wheat over past couple days with higher closing prices. It remains to been seen how far wheat can rally with huge wheat crops around the world. One bullish factor is President Trump said he plans to announce a farmer aid package next week. Ukraine’s sown area is estimated 9% higher to 5.2 million ha, due to declines in corn and sunflower areas. The war in Ukraine and Russia seems to be picking up, with drone sighting in parts of western Europe assumed to be from Russia. In addition, to possible strikes inside Russia with American weapons. If there is some more escalation in the war from here, it could be supportive of wheat prices.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (514) 5-day, (520) 20-day, (528) 50-day, (550) 100-day, (576) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (532) 5-day, (538) 20-day, (546) 50-day, (568) 100-day, (594) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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