Soybeans–
Soybean stocks came in lower than analyst estimates on yesterday’s report. Stocks came in at 316 mb, compared to the average estimate 323 mb. Harvested acres were raised by 100,00. Yesterday, it was reported that China won’t be buying any US Ag products anytime soon. However, a farmer aid package is expected to be announced over the next few weeks. Brazil’s new crop production is estimated at 48.5 mt, compared to 50.3 last season. NASS August crush will not be reported due to the government shutdown, along with tomorrow morning’s export report.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1013 (+11), high of 1020, low of 993. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1031 (+10), high of 1038, low of 1012. Cash price is at 959 (-9)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 264.7 (+0.3) high of 266.0, low of 262.0
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 49.75 (+0.88) high of 49.75, low of 48.58
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.09% Meal – 47.91% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1010) 5-day, (1025) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1029) 100-day, (1027) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1029) 5-day, (1044) 20-day, (1043) 50-day, (1046) 100-day, (1041) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (267.2) 5-day, (278.5) 20-day, (280.2) 50-day, (286.5) 100-day, (298.9) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (49.41) 5-day, (50.38) 20-day, (52.33) 50-day, (51.92) 100-day, (48.37) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 416 (+1), high of 419, low of 410. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 432 (+0.75). Cash price is 417 (-1)
Corn is expected to have favorable harvest conditions for the rest of the week. Some rain is expected in the Plains, with the eastern corn belt expected to have the best harvest conditions. The 6-10 day forecast shows a high chance of rains for the northern plains. Dr. Cordonnier has his corn yield estimate at 182, much lower than the USDA’s figure. He is noticing a significant southern rust issue in some locations in the Midwest. Argentina is expecting a record harvest for its new crop corn, while Brazil has been facing dryness.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (420) 5-day, (422) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (424) 100-day, (439) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (436) 5-day, (439) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (441) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 509 (+1), with a high of 510, low of 502. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 527 (+0.50). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 455 (-11). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 495 (-2).
Wheat closed 2 cents higher, after trading 4 1/2 cents lower in the overnight session. Argentina raised their estimate for its wheat production to 22 mt, up from 20.5 mt previously. Meanwhile, LSEG raised its estimate for the Canadian wheat crop by 4.4%. China’s import forecast is 6 mt, compared to 4.2 mt last year. China’s production is estimated at 140, unchanged. There’s a USDA report on October 9, but as of now the bears remain in control of the wheat market.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (516) 5-day, (520) 20-day, (529) 50-day, (550) 100-day, (576) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (535) 5-day, (538) 20-day, (547) 50-day, (569) 100-day, (594) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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