Soybeans–
Argentina went ahead and ended their export tax holiday after hitting the $7B limit. Argentina making so many sales during the US export window is bearish, however soybeans have held up relatively well. There’s a farmer aid package in the works, which is will reportedly be funded from tariffs revenues. The China trade deal will likely not be agreed upon until early 2026. China is now up to 30-35 soybean cargoes from Argentina this week. For the week ending September 18, soybeans exports were 724k mt for the current marketing year. Export pace is now at 23.7% of the USDA average, compared to the 5-year average at 43.4%.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1012 (+3), high of 1017, low of 1006. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1031 (+2), high of 1036, low of 1026. Cash price is at 968 (-3)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 268.6 (-3.1) high of 272.1, low of 267.5
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 49.74 (+0.45) high of 49.99, low of 48.97
The September Meal to Oil ratio (51.92% Meal – 48.08% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1014) 5-day, (1032) 20-day, (1026) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1027) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1033) 5-day, (1051) 20-day, (1044) 50-day, (1046) 100-day, (1041) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (275.4) 5-day, (281.2) 20-day, (281.2) 50-day, (287.8) 100-day, (299.7) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (49.52) 5-day, (50.88) 20-day, (52.83) 50-day, (51.88) 100-day, (48.24) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 16 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 17,001 contracts bringing their bringing their net long position to 2,287 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -16,603 contracts bringing their net short position to -119,674 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -118 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 19 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 3,013 contracts, bringing their net short position of -82,772 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 919 contracts bringing their net short position to -66,328. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -40,540 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 19 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 21,388 contracts after buying 17,726 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 43,179 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 424 (+1), high of 428, low of 423. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 442 (+1). Cash price is 415 (+0.50)
The Grain Stocks report comes out next week. Looking historically, the quarterly stocks report has come in below the average estimate in 6 of the last 7 years. LSEG estimates yield at 185.3 bpa, compared to the USDA’s latest estimate at 186.7 bpa from the September WASDE report. Harvest conditions have been favorable in the Midwest, with surprisingly warm and dry weather. Weather is expected to keep the same trend into early next week. Ag. Secretary Rollins said that a farmer aid package could announced within the next several weeks. For the week ending September 18, corn exports were 1.92 mmt for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year. Corn exports are at 35.3% of the USDA forecast, compared to the 5-year average at 28.8%. This marks the biggest weekly corn sales since October 2024.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (424) 5-day, (422) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (425) 100-day, (439) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (441) 5-day, (439) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (441) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 19 showed that corn Managed Money bought 19,878 contracts bringing their net position to -80,051 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -15,920 contracts bringing their net position to -108,290. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -102,799 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 527 (+7), with a high of 527, low of 518. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 545 (+7). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 464 (-1). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 512 (+5).
Wheat closed up 6 3/4 cents, after trading up 4 cents in the overnight session. Wheat is trading above the 50-day moving average and is testing the 21-day moving average after the small rally thus far. Wheat responded well to the export tax holiday in Argentina. Brazil used it as an opportunity to pick up discounted cargoes. For the week ending September 18, wheat exports were 539k mt for the for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year. Wheat exports are at 57.3% of the USDA forecast, compared to the 5-year average at 48.7%. Wheat demand is strong, further emphasizing 500 as very strong level of support. The Russian crop estimate was raised again by IKAR to 87.5 mt, up from 87.0 mt previously.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (520) 5-day, (523) 20-day, (533) 50-day, (552) 100-day, (578) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (538) 5-day, (541) 20-day, (551) 50-day, (571) 100-day, (596) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 19 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -85,825 contracts, having decreased their short position by 6,569 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -7,2402 contracts to bring their net short position to 13,618 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -75,203 contracts.
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