Soybeans–
Soybeans continued sharply lower following President Trump’s call with China’s Xi on Friday. The market reacted negatively to the lack of attention to purchases on the call. Both parties are expected to meet again in South Korea in November at the APEC summit. A deal may not be agreed upon until 2026. China has been doing their soybean buying from Brazil and that will likely continue unless Brazil faces a weather in problem during their rainy season. China’s August imports are down 2% from 2024. Friday’s COT showed managed money traders moving to a net long position in soybeans. Conditions for harvest are expected to be favorable this week.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1011 (-14), high of 1025, low of 1006. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1030 (-14), high of 1044, low of 1026. Cash price is at 983 (-12)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 278.9 (-4.0) high of 283.3, low of 277.2
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 49.17 (-0.86) high of 50.18, low of 49.87
The September Meal to Oil ratio (53.15% Meal – 46.85% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1033) 5-day, (1038) 20-day, (1026) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1027) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1052) 5-day, (1057) 20-day, (1044) 50-day, (1046) 100-day, (1041) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (282.9) 5-day, (283.7) 20-day, (284.1) 50-day, (288.6) 100-day, (300.3) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (50.74) 5-day, (51.48) 20-day, (53.12) 50-day, (51.86) 100-day, (48.14) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 16 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 17,001 contracts bringing their bringing their net long position to 2,287 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -16,603 contracts bringing their net short position to -119,674 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -118 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 19 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 3,013 contracts, bringing their net short position of -82,772 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 919 contracts bringing their net short position to -66,328. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -40,540 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 19 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 21,388 contracts after buying 17,726 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 43,179 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 421 (-2), high of 424, low of 418. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 438 (-2). Cash price is 411 (+0.25)
Corn traded slightly lower today. Today’s move was likely also partly due to the call between Trump and XI on Friday. Argentina’s total grain exports for 2025/26 are estimated at a record 105.1 mt, compared to 101.6 a year ago. Argentina is removing all export taxes on grain until the end of October to incentivize farmer selling. Brazil’s corn shipments from February to September hit 15 mt, compared to 19 mt a year ago. Friday’s COT showed some buying in corn, now well below the 100k mark. I still like being long corn, but be aware of harvest pressure.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (425) 5-day, (419) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (426) 100-day, (439) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (442) 5-day, (437) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (442) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 19 showed that corn Managed Money bought 19,878 contracts bringing their net position to -80,051 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -15,920 contracts bringing their net position to -108,290. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -102,799 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 510 (-11), with a high of 523, low of 508. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 529 (-11). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 467 (-1). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 502 (-5).
Wheat had a big sell off today, after trading 5 cents lower in the overnight session. Russia’s exports are down slightly for September compared to August at 4.4 mt and 4.2 mt respectively. Ukraine’s exports are also seeing a slower pace at 4.02 mt, versus 5.59 mt last year. Global supplies are still weighing down the market. The funds did some covering on their short positions, according to Friday’s COT data, however this market is still looking for a bottom.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (524) 5-day, (524) 20-day, (535) 50-day, (554) 100-day, (579) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (542) 5-day, (541) 20-day, (553) 50-day, (573) 100-day, (597) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 19 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -85,825 contracts, having decreased their short position by 6,569 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -7,2402 contracts to bring their net short position to 13,618 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -75,203 contracts.
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