Soybeans–
President Trump and China’s Xi had a phone call today, marking the 4th round of trade talks between the two countries. The markets were hoping that today’s talks would discuss details regarding US Ag purchases, however the discussion focused on TikTok. The call was said to be positive, with Trump saying he would visit China early in ’26. Soybean had a negative reaction once traders learned about the lack focus on Ag purchases. November soybeans made a high this morning at 1047 and then faded the rest of the day. Looking at South America, CONAB estimates Brazil’s new crop soybeans at 177.67 mt, up from 171.47 mt for 2024/25. Meanwhile, Brazil is now exiting their dry season which should improve the dry crop conditions they’ve been facing. New crop exports are now estimated at 112 mt, compared to 106 last season. Export sales came in at 2.2k mt for the current marketing year and 925k for the next marketing year.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1025 (-12), high of 1047, low of 1024. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1044 (-11), high of 1066, low of 1043. Cash price is at 995 (-8)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 282.9 (-0.1) high of 286.2, low of 281.9
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 50.03 (-0.54) high of 50.76, low of 49.97
The September Meal to Oil ratio (53.07% Meal – 46.93% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1040) 5-day, (1040) 20-day, (1026) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1027) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1059) 5-day, (1059) 20-day, (1044) 50-day, (1046) 100-day, (1040) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (284.2) 5-day, (284.1) 20-day, (284.1) 50-day, (288.8) 100-day, (300.4) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (51.25) 5-day, (51.76) 20-day, (53.21) 50-day, (51.86) 100-day, (48.11) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -26,678 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -14,714 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 13,546 contracts bringing their net short position to -103,071 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -20,588 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 3,737 contracts, bringing their net short position of -85,785 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -18,479 contracts bringing their net short position to -67,247. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -38,832 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 3,662 contracts after selling -12,465 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 106,318 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 424 (+0.25), high of 429 3/4, low of 422. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 441 (-0.25). Cash price is 411 (-3)
Corn also had a disappointing reaction following the President’s phone call with the Chinese leader. December corn made a high this morning at 429 3/4, before fading to 422 and then closing at 424 1/4. 25% of corn areas are under moderate to extreme drought, compared to only 7% at the end of July. Heavy rain is expected over the weekend in the Midwest, focusing on Missouri, Illinois, and parts of Kansas. The eastern corn belt is also expected to see some rainfall. Corn export sales came in at 1.2 mmt for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year. Sales will need to average 973k mt to reach the USDA forecast. Exports are currently 32.6% of the USDA forecast.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (425) 5-day, (419) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (426) 100-day, (439) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (443) 5-day, (436) 20-day, (431) 50-day, (442) 100-day, (454) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed that corn Managed Money sold -8,442 contracts bringing their net position to -9,929 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 9,487 contracts bringing their net position to -92,370. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -123,947 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 522 (-1), with a high of 526, low of 520. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 540 (-1). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 469 (-4). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 507 (-2).
Wheat continues to trade sideways. Trump’s call with China had less negative effect on wheat than the other grains today. Funds are still short but some of these large production estimates should start being priced in here. Production estimates were raised this week in Australia, Russia, and the EU. The IGC also raised their global production estimate to 8 mt. Ending stocks are expected to stay within range due to comparable gains in demand. As mentioned yesterday, winter wheat under drought now stands at 44%, up 6 points. Last year at this time, winter wheat areas under drought were even higher at 58%. Looking at HRS wheat, the drought rating unchanged at 13%. Last week Argentina’s wheat conditions fell by 2 points to 85% good/excellent due to dry conditions. Last year at this time, Argentia’s wheat conditions were rated at 35% good/excellent.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (526) 5-day, (525) 20-day, (536) 50-day, (554) 100-day, (579) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (544) 5-day, (542) 20-day, (554) 50-day, (573) 100-day, (597) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -92,394 contracts, having decreased their short position by 3,662 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 9,487 contracts to bring their net short position to -92,370 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -83,124 contracts.
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