Soybeans–
Soybeans have faced pressure from weakness in soybean oil and improving crop conditions in Brazil. Stats Canada released their soybean production estimate at 7.134 mt, up from 7.016 mt in August. Last year, Stats Canada estimated soybean production at 7.568 mt. The central and western soybean belt is expected to stay day over the next 6-10 days, which should be favorable for harvest. President Trump is scheduled to meet with China’s Xi on Friday. After several sets of talks, hopefully both sides can finally come to an agreement. Farmers would rather make money selling their grain internationally than take handouts from the government.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1037 (-6), high of 1044, low of 1035. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1056 (-6), high of 1063, low of 1054. Cash price is at 1003 (-6)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 283.0 (-0.9) high of 285.3, low of 284.5
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 50.57 (-0.67) high of 51.44, low of 50.47
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.81% Meal – 47.19% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1044) 5-day, (1042) 20-day, (1025) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1027) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1063) 5-day, (1060) 20-day, (1044) 50-day, (1046) 100-day, (1040) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (286.3) 5-day, (287.4) 20-day, (286.4) 50-day, (293.8) 100-day, (304.5) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (51.59) 5-day, (51.94) 20-day, (53.27) 50-day, (51.86) 100-day, (48.07) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -26,678 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -14,714 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 13,546 contracts bringing their net short position to -103,071 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -20,588 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 3,737 contracts, bringing their net short position of -85,785 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -18,479 contracts bringing their net short position to -67,247. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -38,832 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 3,662 contracts after selling -12,465 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 106,318 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 423 (-3), high of 428, low of 423. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 441 (-3). Cash price is 414 (-2)
Corn closed lower today, after trading 1/4 cent higher in the overnight. The western and central corn belt is expected to receive some rainfall but the western corn belt should keep staying dry. Wetter weather should slow harvest pace. Open interest was rising on the rally further emphasizing the upward trend. China’s corn imports for August are down 90.5% from last August and down 93% from a year ago. A trade deal with China may be on the way. President Trump has hinted about a potential farmer aid package, which would be funded from tariff revenue.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (425) 5-day, (417) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (426) 100-day, (440) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (443) 5-day, (435) 20-day, (431) 50-day, (443) 100-day, (454) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed that corn Managed Money sold -8,442 contracts bringing their net position to -9,929 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 9,487 contracts bringing their net position to -92,370. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -123,947 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 524 (-4), with a high of 532, low of 523. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 524 (-3). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 473 (-2). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 510 (-6).
Wheat was lower again today. Wheat looks to be forming a double bottom on the chart, which is a sign that wheat could be starting to put a bottom in. Currently 44% of winter wheat areas under drought, that is bullish. But production estimates keep being raised globally which is weighing the market down. At some point, all these big crops will be priced in but it may continue to take some time. Stats Canada raised their all wheat estimate to 1.9% above a year ago. Funds are still staying out of the wheat market on the long side. Managed money added to their short position, shorting an additional 10k contracts. Managed money is now short -92,394 contracts.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (527) 5-day, (525) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (555) 100-day, (580) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (545) 5-day, (542) 20-day, (555) 50-day, (574) 100-day, (597) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -92,394 contracts, having decreased their short position by 3,662 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 9,487 contracts to bring their net short position to -92,370 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -83,124 contracts.
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