Corn and Soybeans Rally After the September WASDE

Hans SchmitGrains

Soybeans–

Soybeans traded 11 ¾ cents higher after today’s report. Area planted was increased from 80.8 ma to 81.1 ma. Area harvested was increased from 80.1 ma in August to 80.3 ma. Yield was lowered from 53.6 bpa to 53.5. The production estimate for new crop soybeans is now 4,301 mb. Exports were decreased from August at 1,705 mb to 1,685 mb. Ending stocks are now 300 mb for new crop soybeans, compared to 290 mb last month. Old crop ending stocks were steady at 330 mb.

November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1046 (+12), high of 1049, low of 1028. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1065 (+12), high of 1067, low of 1047. Cash price is at 993 (+8)

October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 287.6 (+1.5) high of 289.0, low of 283.5

October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 51.67 (+0.59) high of 52.00, low of 50.85

The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.68% Meal – 47.32% Oil)

ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1034) 5-day, (1040) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1027) 200-day

ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1053) 5-day, (1059) 20-day, (1042) 50-day, (1045) 100-day, (1040) 200-day

ZMV25 Moving Averages – (285.4) 5-day, (285.1) 20-day, (280.9) 50-day, (289.7) 100-day, (301.0) 200-day

ZLV25 Moving Averages – (50.65) 5-day, (52.10) 20-day, (53.51) 50-day, (51.70) 100-day, (47.83) 200-day

The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 35,273 contracts bringing their bringing their net long position to 3 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -28,135 contracts bringing their net short position to  -114,151 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -4,791 contracts.

The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 24,070 contracts, bringing their net short position of -85,239 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -11,089 contracts bringing their net short position to -60,857. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -40,571 contracts.

The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 31,342 contracts after selling -13,070 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 50,491 contracts.

CORN –

December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 430 (+10), high of 430, low of 417. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 447 (+10). Cash price is 417 (+2)

It was a strange trading day for corn. December corn made closed at 328, after making a low immediately after the report at 416. Today’s report showed the USDA lowered yield from 188.8 bushels per acre (bpa) to 186.7 bpa, however acreage was raised. Planted acreage was increased from 97.3 ma in August to 98.7 ma. The estimate for area harvested was increased 1.3 million acres (ma) to 90 ma. The USDA estimated harvested acreage at 88.7 ma in August. Corn’s reaction to the September WASDE shows that not everyone believes the higher acreage. No changes were made to feed use, despite some analysts expecting reduced feed demand because of a tighter cattle supply. Exports were increased from 2,875 million bushels (mb) in August to 2,975 mb, putting total use at 16,055 mb versus 15,995 mb in August. New crop ending stocks are now 2,110 mb. In August, the USDA estimated ending stocks at 2,117. Old crop carryout is estimated at 1,325 mb, compared to 1,305 mb last month.

ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (421) 5-day, (414) 20-day, (413) 50-day, (427) 100-day, (440) 200-day

ZCH26 Moving Averages – (439) 5-day, (432) 20-day, (431) 50-day, (443) 100-day, (453) 200-day

The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that corn Managed Money bought 31,464 contracts bringing their net position to  -144,650 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold  -25,041 contracts bringing their net position to  -57,745. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was  -163,744 contracts.

WHEAT –

December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 523 (+2), with a high of 524, low of 515. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 541 (+2). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 460 (+6). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 514 (+4).

 The only real changes for domestic wheat on this report were an increase in new crop exports from 875 mb in August to 900 mb. Ending stocks for new crop wheat are now reduced to 844 mb, from 869 mb previously. For world wheat, ending stocks were increased to 264.06 mb. In August, world wheat ending stocks were 260.08 bb. The higher ending stock number is due to higher production around world, which is not new information based on recent wheat crop estimates.

ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (520) 5-day, (525) 20-day, (541) 50-day, (557) 100-day, (581) 200-day

ZWH26 Moving Averages – (538) 5-day, (542) 20-day, (559) 50-day, (576) 100-day, (599) 200-day

The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -98,132 contracts, having increased their short position by  -8,837 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 2,615 contracts to bring their net long position to 25,061 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short  -163,744 contracts.

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Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
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hschmit@walshtrading.com

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