Soybeans–
Soybeans had a small move lower today just like corn. China’s government approved a new GMO variety of soybeans to enhance their production. Domestic production is a small part of their typical supply but it emphasizes China’s focus on a supply chain they control. China has also made significant investments in South America, particularly Brazil, to boost their Ag infrastructure so that China can make imports. The average estimate for new crop yield on Friday is 53.2 bpa, compared to 53.6 bpa in August. The average estimate for soybean production is 4,262 bb, compared to 4,292 bb in August. No change is expected for harvested acres, most estimates are guessing the same 80.1 figure from August.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1031 (-2), high of 1036, low of 1029. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1050 (-2), high of 1054, low of 1048. Cash price is at 992 (+6)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 287.7 (+5.8) high of 288.6, low of 281.5
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 49.93 (-1.05) high of 51.17, low of 49.80
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.51% Meal – 47.49% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1031) 5-day, (1040) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1026) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1050) 5-day, (1059) 20-day, (1042) 50-day, (1045) 100-day, (1039) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (281.6) 5-day, (285.4) 20-day, (280.7) 50-day, (290.3) 100-day, (301.3) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (50.93) 5-day, (52.34) 20-day, (53.60) 50-day, (51.64) 100-day, (47.75) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 35,273 contracts bringing their bringing their net long position to 3 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -28,135 contracts bringing their net short position to -114,151 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -4,791 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 24,070 contracts, bringing their net short position of -85,239 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -11,089 contracts bringing their net short position to -60,857. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -40,571 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 31,342 contracts after selling -13,070 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 50,491 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 419 (-2), high of 422, low of 419. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 437 (-2). Cash price is 419 (+3)
Corn had a small move lower during today’s trading. As we get closer to the WASDE report on Friday, the market could see some short covering. The WASDE report is expected to come out bullish after the USDA raised yield significantly to 188.8 bpa in August. I think its likely that the USDA lowers yield and acres. However, there has been some talk of lower feed demand due to lower cattle supply. If yield is cut by a few bushels, it could be enough to spark a breakout over 420 and beyond. Looking at exports, high water levels on the Mississippi River are pushing FOB prices higher in New Orleans, compared to the values in Parana, Brazil.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (419) 5-day, (410) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (429) 100-day, (440) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (437) 5-day, (428) 20-day, (431) 50-day, (445) 100-day, (454) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that corn Managed Money bought 31,464 contracts bringing their net position to -144,650 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -25,041 contracts bringing their net position to -57,745. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -163,744 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 520 (-3), with a high of 525, low of 519. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 537 (-3). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 467 (+3). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 510 (-7).
Wheat traded 4 ¼ cents lower today in the December contract. The Russian Ruble hit its lowest price since May, making Russia more competitive on the export market. SovEcon raised its Russian production estimate to 86.1 mt, up from 85.4 mt previously. The central region of Stavropol is anticipated to be the Russia’s leading wheat producing region for the first time since 2013. The southern region of Volga is typically the biggest producing region of Russia. The US dollar is sitting at a 7-week low, with a possible .50 rate cut coming up. A lower dollar should boost exports. The next WASDE report is scheduled for Friday.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (521) 5-day, (526) 20-day, (544) 50-day, (559) 100-day, (583) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (537) 5-day, (543) 20-day, (562) 50-day, (578) 100-day, (600) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -98,132 contracts, having increased their short position by -8,837 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 2,615 contracts to bring their net long position to 25,061 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -163,744 contracts.
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