Soybeans–
Soybeans were slightly higher today after falling lower the previous two trading days. Rabobank now estimates Brazil’s new crop soybeans at 175 mt after increasing the planted area estimated by 1.5%. IMEA agrees with the higher planted area estimate, with higher expectations for Mato Grasso plantings. 16% of US soybean areas are under drought, compared to 19% a year ago. Tennessee and Arkansas lead the way for soybean areas under drought followed by Mississippi and Kentucky. November soybeans are now above the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1033 (+1), high of 1034, low of 1021. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1051 (+1), high of 1052, low of 1040. Cash price is at 991 (-15)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 280.1 (+2.5) high of 281.3, low of 277.0
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 51.51 (-0.82) high of 51.64, low of 50.73
The September Meal to Oil ratio (51.91% Meal – 48.09% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1041) 5-day, (1036) 20-day, (1023) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1026) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1060) 5-day, (1054) 20-day, (1041) 50-day, (1045) 100-day, (1039) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (280.5) 5-day, (285.0) 20-day, (280.7) 50-day, (291.0) 100-day, (301.6) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (51.77) 5-day, (52.70) 20-day, (53.71) 50-day, (51.53) 100-day, (47.67) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 35,273 contracts bringing their bringing their net long position to 3 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -28,135 contracts bringing their net short position to -114,151 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -4,791 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 24,070 contracts, bringing their net short position of -85,239 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -11,089 contracts bringing their net short position to -60,857. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -40,571 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 31,342 contracts after selling -13,070 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 50,491 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 419 (+1), high of 421, low of 414. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 447 (+1). Cash price is 415 (-5)
Corn traded slightly higher during today’s session, after falling 3/4 cents in the overnight. Weather forecasters are warning about the potential for frost in the Northern Midwest in places like Minnesota and Wisconsin, which could spread to parts of North and South Dakota into the weekend. Corn buyers have been stepping up in place of China, however the US has lost its competitive advantage in export pricing to Argentina. Export prices in the US are better than Brazil. Old crop exports at 72.75 mt are a record high. Tight cattle supplies have prompted discussion on lower feed demand, which would be bearish if this materializes on the September WASDE.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (418) 5-day, (408) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (430) 100-day, (440) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (435) 5-day, (426) 20-day, (431) 50-day, (446) 100-day, (454) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that corn Managed Money bought 31,464 contracts bringing their net position to -144,650 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -25,041 contracts bringing their net position to -57,745. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -163,744 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 519 (-2), with a high of 522, low of 514. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 536 (-2). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 466 (-9). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 506 (-4).
Wheat continues to disappoint bulls, closing lower again today. Wheat’s slip today, comes after a 6 3/4 cent drop in the overnight. In the EU, Germany is seeing higher wheat production estimates. French has the cheapest wheat available for export, followed by the US and Russia. Wheat shorts seem to be adding new positions again, after open interest increased by 15,650 contracts during yesterday’s selloff. KC wheat also saw an increase in open interest by 9,375 contracts. Argentina’s wheat conditions are at 79% good/excellent, compared to the 5-year average at 28%. More downside is likely ahead for wheat.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (527) 5-day, (528) 20-day, (547) 50-day, (562) 100-day, (584) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (544) 5-day, (546) 20-day, (566) 50-day, (581) 100-day, (602) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -98,132 contracts, having increased their short position by -8,837 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 2,615 contracts to bring their net long position to 25,061 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -163,744 contracts.
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