WALSH PURE SPREADER
Pure Hedge Division
Rich Moran 9/3/2025
DEC-MAR Soybean-Meal Spread (ZMZ25-ZMH26)
The Dec-Mar Soybean Meal Spread (ZMZ25-ZMH26) traded slightly below its 52-week high at +1.1 on February 4th. From there it had a steady downward trend until it made a new 14-day low of -9.9 on July 10th. Since then, it has traded in a sideways pattern basically between -10.5 and -8.5. It did have a quick spike up to -6.8 on August 25th, but it slipped back down to -10.5 again.
It appears it may be stabilizing at these levels. Today it settled at -10.2 which is 67% of full carry. That being said, “full carry” can be surpassed.
If corn continues to uptick, this could help stabilize the soybean meal market, but I feel ZMZ25-ZMH26 (Dec-March Soybean-Meal Spread) might strengthen at these levels even if the soybean meal market softens a little more.
According to the most recent Commitments of Traders Summary, managed money is still short 61,711 Soybean Meal contracts, however, they did continue to lighten up on these positions and peeled off an additional 23,525 contracts. If they continue with this pattern, I think that could help strengthen the spread as well.
I suggest trying to get long the ZMZ25-ZMH25 Spread at today’s settlement of -10.2 or better when the market reopens.
Risk 1.3 dollars (-11.5) or $130 Per Spread to make 5 dollars (-5.2) or $500 Per Spread Plus fees and commissions.
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Following up on the still active past trade ideas:
- 8/29/25: ZCZ25-ZCH26 (DEC-MAR Corn Spread)
I think we should try getting long the ZCZ25-ZCH26 (DEC-MAR Corn Spread) if we can settle above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages. Today, we settled about ½ cent below both moving averages.
- 8/27/25: ZSF26-ZSN26 (JAN-JULY’26 Soybean Spread)
If we can get back above and settle above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think we should try buying the spread with a short stop below these moving averages.
Today, we settled a little below these two moving averages again.
- 8/6/25: ZSX25-ZSF26 (NOV-JAN Soybean Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -18½, Long at -17½
The spread settled above the 14-day and the 21-day at -17¾ on 8/21/25. You should be long at -17½ from the open on 8/22/25.
Risking 3½ cents (-21) or $175 to make 9 ½ cents (-8) or $475
- 8/1/25: LEV25-HEV25 (OCT’25 Live Cattle-OCT’25 Lean Hogs Spread)
Today’s Settlement: 144.500, If we are fortunate enough to have this spread, LEV25-HEV25, settle below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think it could be a good time to short it. It just might be a more comfortable way to slide some Live Cattle shorts into our position.
- 7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat Spread))
Today’s Settlement: -16¼, Long at -18½
Risking 3½ cents (-22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (-8½) or $500 Per Spread.
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Rich Moran
Senior Commodities Broker
Direct: (312)985-0298
Cell: (773)502-5321
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