Soybeans–
Soybean traders are still unpacking the recent trade deals with the Philippines and Japan. The trade deal news has not impacted soybeans significantly in either direction. Last night, the White House said that the Japanese trade deal could include $8 billion worth of U.S. Ag products, however specific figures were not specified. Trade talks with China are scheduled to continue next week. Trade developments next week will be key for soybean prices. Argentina recently sold its 2nd 30,000-ton meal cargo to China. The extended forecast for the Midwest shows cooler temperatures 2 weeks out with rain potential.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 1004 (-1), high of 1010, low of 999. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1024 (+1), high of 1028, low of 1019. Cash price is at 996 (-1)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 269.7 (-2.3) high of 274.8, low of 268.5
August Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 56.67 (+0.53) high of 56.70, low of 56.02
The August Meal to Oil ratio (48.77% Meal – 51.23% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (1012) 5-day, (1020) 20-day, (1039) 50-day, (1035) 100-day, (1038) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1026) 5-day, (1022) 20-day, (1033) 50-day, (1026) 100-day, (1028) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (272) 5-day, (271.9) 20-day, (286.2) 50-day, (294.9) 100-day, (304.7) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (56.07) 5-day, (54.48) 20-day, (51.79) 50-day, (48.95) 100-day, (46.61) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week July 15 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -26,062 contracts to their bringing their net short to -32,278 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 26,095 contracts bringing their net short position to -84,104 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -34,902 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 15 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -1,537 contracts, moving to a net short position of -133,016 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -2,863 contracts bringing their net short position to -30,872. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -85,425 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 15 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 43,221 contracts after buying 5,480 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 70,579 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 401 (+3), high of 404, low of 398. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 420 (+3). Cash price is 424 (-0.75)
The trade deal with Japan may not have an impact on corn. $8 billion in Ag product purchases were announced, as part of the deal, however Japan is already the 2nd largest customer for U.S. corn. Cooler temperatures are expected in the Midwest in the extended forecast, along with some rain which should be beneficial for corn development. Corn is due for a bounce if some more trade deals can get done.
Ethanol for the week ending July 18, averaged 1.0178 mb, down nearly a percent from last week and down 1.6% from last year. Ethanol production for the week was 7.546 mb. Ethanol stocks were 24.444 mb, a new record for this week of the year.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (402) 5-day, (404) 20-day, (417) 50-day, (430) 100-day, (438) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (421) 5-day, (421) 20-day, (433) 50-day, (442) 100-day, (445) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 15 showed that corn Managed Money bought 29,106 contracts bringing their net position to -174,755 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -10,113 contracts bringing their net position to -40,294. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -190,130 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 541 (+1), with a high of 546, low of 535. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 561 (unchanged). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 512 (-10). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 528 (+5).
Yesterday’s lower trading in the wheat market was due to the HRS crop tour finding better results than expected on Day 1. Day 2 conditions were worse than the first day of the crop tour, with an average yield of 47.1 bpa. Reports came out that Russian hedgers liquidated their long position in Paris wheat as prices failed to bounce. The Russians were looking for a rally due to the poor quality of the Russian harvest. Demand should increase domestically as the U.S. has a price advantage compared to Argentina, France, and Russia.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (544) 5-day, (545) 20-day, (550) 50-day, (559) 100-day, (580) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (564) 5-day, (566) 20-day, (572) 50-day, (581) 100-day, (599) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 15 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -60,487 contracts, having increased their short position by -4,893 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 865 contracts to bring their net long position to 5,759 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -74,935 contracts.
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