Soybeans–
There was a trade deal made yesterday with the Philippines, and today there was a deal made with Japan. Despite the trade deals, soybeans were not able to rally. Further trade deals with South Korea, India, and the EU would be bullish. President Trump is expected to meet with China’s Xi this fall. The 14 day forecast shows temperatures cooling off some after the heat dome with normal rainfall anticipated. Soybeans could be a good buy around $10.0 as we approach the fall meeting with China,.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 1005 (-4), high of 1019, low of 1004. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1022 (-2), high of 1035, low of 1021. Cash price is at 1001 (-5)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 272.0 (-1.8) high of 277.5, low of 271.7
August Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 56.14 (+0.51) high of 56.50, low of 55.63
The August Meal to Oil ratio (49.61% Meal – 50.39% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (1016) 5-day, (1021) 20-day, (1041) 50-day, (1035) 100-day, (1039) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1027) 5-day, (1022) 20-day, (1034) 50-day, (1026) 100-day, (1028) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (271.8) 5-day, (272.4) 20-day, (286.8) 50-day, (295.3) 100-day, (305.0) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (55.98) 5-day, (54.24) 20-day, (51.66) 50-day, (48.82) 100-day, (46.55) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week July 15 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -26,062 contracts to their bringing their net short to -32,278 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 26,095 contracts bringing their net short position to -84,104 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -34,902 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 15 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -1,537 contracts, moving to a net short position of -133,016 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -2,863 contracts bringing their net short position to -30,872. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -85,425 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 15 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 43,221 contracts after buying 5,480 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 70,579 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 398 (-0.75), high of 401, low of 397. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 417 (-0.75). Cash price is 424 (-5)
Corn did not see much of a bounce from the trade deal news. Next week the Midwest will see above-average rainfall if the forecast materializes. LSEG lowered their production estimate for EU +27 to 61.5 mt, down 1.9% from the prior forecast. The EU has been suffering from dry weather. More demand would be beneficial for bullish traders and producers as South American competition will be heating up as Brazil finishes its harvest.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (402) 5-day, (404) 20-day, (418) 50-day, (430) 100-day, (438) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (421) 5-day, (421) 20-day, (433) 50-day, (442) 100-day, (445) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 15 showed that corn Managed Money bought 29,106 contracts bringing their net position to -174,755 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -10,113 contracts bringing their net position to -40,294. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -190,130 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 540 (-9), with a high of 552, low of 540. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 561 (-8). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 522 (+7). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 523 (-9).
SovEcon and others recently raised their Russian wheat harvest forecast. However, the Russian AG Minister said its wheat crop may come in lower than last month’s expectations. Russia forecasts its crop at 88-90 mt, down from the earlier forecast at 90 mt. Russian exports are estimated at 43-44 mt. The trade deal news was not supportive enough for wheat today, to see a higher close. Wheat prices should trade lower with more harvest pressure from Russia.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (542) 5-day, (545) 20-day, (550) 50-day, (560) 100-day, (580) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (563) 5-day, (566) 20-day, (572) 50-day, (582) 100-day, (599) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 15 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -60,487 contracts, having increased their short position by -4,893 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 865 contracts to bring their net long position to 5,759 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -74,935 contracts.
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