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Soybeans–
November Soybeans closed up 18 cents to 1019 3/4. The market has added some weather premium due to forecasts showing higher temperatures in the Midwest and eastern soybean growing areas over the next 11-14 days. August is the key month for soybean development. If hotter weather materializes into August more weather premium could be added. Some weather services have also highlighted the potential for severe weather towards the end of July and early August.
Soybean meal is a market to watch. The funds are record short and the yesterday President Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia; a country that’s among the top 10 export destinations for soybean meal.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 1013 1/2 (+18), high of 1014 low of 996. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1019 3/4 (+18), high of 1021 3/4, low of 1009. Cash price is at 982 (-6)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 268.4 (+3.1) high of 270.4, low of 265.3
August Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 54.82 (+0.26) high of 55.06, low of 54.45
The August Meal to Oil ratio (50.70% Meal – 49.30% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (1005) 5-day, (1034) 20-day, (1043) 50-day, (1038) 100-day, (1041) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1010) 5-day, (1029) 20-day, (1034) 50-day, (1027) 100-day, (1030) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (268.6) 5-day, (276.4) 20-day, (289.3) 50-day, (297.3) 100-day, (306.8) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (54.16) 5-day, (53.76) 20-day, (50.90) 50-day, (48.35) 100-day, (46.25) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week July 1st showed soybeans Managed Money traders sold -23,023 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 425 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,209 contracts bringing their net short position to -119,591 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 2,771 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed meal Managed Money traders sold -21,858 contracts, moving to a net short position of -131,938 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 9,331 contracts bringing their net short position to -29,397. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -87,896 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 39,411 contracts after selling -4,908 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 63,772 contracts.
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CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 405 (+4), high of 407, low of 400. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 424 (+4). Cash price is 429 (+1)
Corn closed up 4 3/4 to 424 1/2 in the December contract. Brazil’s corn crop has an estimated yield from the USDA at 132 bpa. Other analysts view Brazil’s yield as high as 134 bpa. Harvest pressure has caused Brazilian corn prices to drop $0.50 in the last month. Brazil’s harvest is about halfway complete.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (400) 5-day, (409) 20-day, (421) 50-day, (434) 100-day, (440) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (418) 5-day, (425) 20-day, (435) 50-day, (444) 100-day, (446) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed that corn Managed Money sold -24,181 contracts bringing their net position to -206,463 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 34,649 contracts bringing their net position to -26,531. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -214,077 contracts.
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WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 541 (-3), with a high of 543, low of 533. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 561 (+3). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 510 (-8). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 522 (-1).
The wheat market joined the rest of the grains, closing higher by 4 1/4 today to 542 1/4 in the September contract. Several harvests are taking place globally right now, putting some harvest pressure on the wheat market. French wheat stocks are forecasted at 3.87 mt, which is a 66% increase compared to last year and also a 21-year high, according to Agrimer. Russia’s harvest is lagging behind last year with inly 11 mt harvested compared to 24.8 mt at this time last year. Global wheat production is forecasted at 800.1 mt, a 0.3% increase from last year.
The next resistance is 543, with not much support showing below this point on the chart until just above 500.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (544) 5-day, (552) 20-day, (550) 50-day, (563) 100-day, (583) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (564) 5-day, (574) 20-day, (572) 50-day, (585) 100-day, (602) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -63,071 contracts, having decreased their short position by 1,596 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -3,579 contracts to bring their net long position to 10,630 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -76,571 contracts.
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Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com
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