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Soybeans–
Soybean conditions sit unchanged at 66% good/excellent, compared to 68% last year. Illinois and Ohio are the states with weaker crop conditions, with Iowa showing the best conditions at 79% good/excellent. Managed money has gone nearly flat the soybean market, reducing their net short to a long position of only 425 contracts. The 425-contract long position is a 12-week low in net longs. At this time last year, funds were short -141k contracts. Brazil is seeing strong demand for its soybean exports, up 3% y/oy at 67.4 mt, with the majority being shipped to China. There are no major changes in the weather forecast right now, with the 8-14 day showing slightly above average temperatures and normal precipitation. Growing conditions are expected to be favorable.
The funds have a record short position in soybean meal at -131k contracts, after selling -21k contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders also showed a significant position, short -87k contracts.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 1021 (-10), high of 1032, low of 1020. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1017 (-3). Cash price is at 1008 (-27)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 270.7 (-1.5) high of 273.3, low of 270.2
August Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 54.11 (+0.17) high of 54.44, low of 53.59
The August Meal to Oil ratio (50.01% Meal – 49.99% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (1038) 5-day, (1048) 20-day, (1048) 50-day, (1041) 100-day, (1043) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1032) 5-day, (1038) 20-day, (1036) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1032) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (274.2) 5-day, (284.7) 20-day, (293) 50-day, (299.9) 100-day, (308.8) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (54.21) 5-day, (52.42) 20-day, (50.36) 50-day, (47.92) 100-day, (45.91) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week July 1st showed soybeans Managed Money traders sold -23,023 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 425 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,209 contracts bringing their net short position to -119,591 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 2,771 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed meal Managed Money traders sold -21,858 contracts, moving to a net short position of -131,938 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 9,331 contracts bringing their net short position to -29,397. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -87,896 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 39,411 contracts after selling -4,908 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 63,772 contracts.
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CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 398 (-5), high of 403, low of 396. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 414 (-6). Cash price is 432 (-16)
Weather conditions have been very favorable for the majority of corn producers, with some talk of potential record yields by a variety of analysts. Corn conditions were 74% last week, up 1% over last week and up 6% over last year. Pollination peaks next week and the same weather trend is expected to continue. If we see any yield increases, every 1 bushel added to the yield will result in an approximately 90 mb increase in ending stocks. Brazil is about 1/3 of the way through harvest, with a large crop still expected. Trade deal news would be helpful for corn because the growing weather has put significant pressure on prices.
The USDA reported a 113k mt export sales of new crop corn to Mexico.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (409) 5-day, (416) 20-day, (425) 50-day, (438) 100-day, (441) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (425) 5-day, (432) 20-day, (439) 50-day, (448) 100-day, (447) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed that corn Managed Money sold -24,181 contracts bringing their net position to -206,463 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 34,649 contracts bringing their net position to -26,531. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -214,077 contracts.
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WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 547 (-0.75), with a high of 550, low of 542. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 568 (-1). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 526 (-9). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 522 (-5).
Like the other grains, wheat could use some help from a trade announcement. HRS conditions fell 3% last week to 50% good/excellent, while winter wheat conditions remained unchanged. Winter wheat harvest is 53% complete, compared to 62% last year. The 5-year average for this time of year is 54%. Weather conditions in Russia and Ukraine will be favorable for harvest, with warmer and dryer weather forecasted. Yesterday, the Russian Ag Ministry took off its wheat export tax to boost export demand. Now SovEcon has raised its 25/26 wheat export forecast to 42.9 mmt, up 2.1 mmt. The USDA estimate for Russian wheat exports is 45 mmt.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (553) 5-day, (554) 20-day, (551) 50-day, (568) 100-day, (585) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (574) 5-day, (576) 20-day, (573) 50-day, (590) 100-day, (604) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -63,071 contracts, having decreased their short position by 1,596 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -3,579 contracts to bring their net long position to 10,630 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -76,571 contracts.
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Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com
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