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Soybeans–
Soybeans had a very rough day to start the week, closing nearly 30 cents lower. The higher trade heading into the weekend was likely due to some end of the month/end of the quarter repositioning, along with an expected trade deal with China. Trade progress with China did not materialize as anticipated. Last week, China was making some purchases from South America last week, with 19 soybean cargos bought from Brazil and 6 from Argentina. Argentina’s crop is slightly ahead of last season at 50.3 mt, compared to 50.2 last year, with harvest now complete. Weather looks strong, overall, for crop development with no signs of a weather premium to be added at this point.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 1031 (-24), high of 1047, low of 1028. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1020 (-28). Cash price is at 1035 (+2)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 272.2 (-5.2) high of 275.8, low of 271.6
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 53.94 (-0.61) high of 54.46, low of 53.39
The July Meal to Oil ratio (50.23% Meal – 49.77% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (1040) 5-day, (1050) 20-day, (1049) 50-day, (1042) 100-day, (1044) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1034) 5-day, (1039) 20-day, (1036) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1032) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (275.2) 5-day, (286.1) 20-day, (293.5) 50-day, (300.3) 100-day, (309.1) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (53.96) 5-day, (52.11) 20-day, (50.29) 50-day, (47.85) 100-day, (45.85) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed soybeans Managed Money traders sold -35,717 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 23,448 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 25,042 contracts bringing their net short position to -146,800 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 32,861 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed meal Managed Money traders sold -2,999 contracts, moving to a net short position of -110,080 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 3,907 contracts bringing their net short position to -38,728. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of – 73,920 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 44,319 contracts after selling -1,824 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 68,760 contracts.
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CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 403 (-16), high of 413, low of 402. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 40 (-16). Cash price is 448 (+2)
Corn erased its gains from Friday, after confirmation of no Chinese purchase announcement. Weather looks very favorable for corn development with high temperatures and solid rains. U.S. corn area under drought is currently at 12%, falling 4% from the week prior. Last year at this time, corn area under drought was 7%. Argentina’s harvest is 62% complete. Argentina is still expecting a bumper crop. The next WASDE report will be July 12th. This could be a good buying opportunity if you’re looking to hedge your feed cost. Keep an eye out for Walsh Gamma Trader and Pure Hedge option plays. It is likely that corn stays above its low from last year at 385, in my opinion.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (411) 5-day, (418) 20-day, (426) 50-day, (439) 100-day, (441) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (427) 5-day, (434) 20-day, (440) 50-day, (448) 100-day, (447) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed that corn Managed Money bought 2,506 contracts bringing their net position to -182,282 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 2,113 contracts bringing their net position to -61,180. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -183,120 contracts.
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WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 548 (-8), with a high of 553, low of 551. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 570 (-8). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 536 (-7). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 527 (-8).
Wheat closed lower with the rest of the grains to start the week. Wheat also saw selling pressure due to no China announcement. Harvest delays are not expected in the Plains this week, despite some slight rain forecasted. U.S. wheat area under drought rose 4% last week to 24%. Last year at this time, wheat area under drought was 20%. Over the weekend, there were 24 deliveries of KC wheat. Looking abroad, Russia dropped their wheat export duty to zero for the first time since it was established in 2021. The Russian Ag Ministry aims to make its wheat more competitive on the global export market. In order for U.S. exports to remain competitive Russian and EU grain prices need to rise, especially if domestic wheat sees any kind of rally from here.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (549) 5-day, (556) 20-day, (551) 50-day, (570) 100-day, (586) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (570) 5-day, (578) 20-day, (573) 50-day, (592) 100-day, (605) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -64,667 contracts, having decreased their short position by 16,686 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -12,361 contracts to bring their net long position to 14,209 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -75,195 contracts.
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Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com
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