Commentary
Grain prices exploded overnight in both Europe and the U.S., highlighted by September wheat hitting limit up today while December 23 corn hitting its highest level in almost a month. Russian attacks expanded to the Danube River this morning, the key point in Ukraine’s campaign to replace the majority of its Black Sea exports via river and overland routes. Strikes continued on the sea port of Odesa as well, but drone attacks on Danube grain terminals were a new and very specific target near the Romanian border, very clearly targeting Ukraine’s ability to export grains following the collapse of the Black Sea export agreement. Following last week’s end of the Black Sea Grain Initiative doubts have surfaced over the future of grain exports from Ukraine. According to Pro Farmer, they found that Ukraine’s corn exports may fall from 15% to 9.6% of global exports, which would drop them one spot to the fourth largest exporter in the 2023-24 crop year. Wheat exports are expected to fall from 7.5% to 5% of global exports. The expected record corn crop in the U.S. and back-to-back record years in Russian wheat exports have kept a lid on prices thus far.
Northwestern U.S. Corn and Soybean production areas will be dry biased this week but will begin seeing some rain this weekend and next week. The hottest weather should abate as well after this week as temperatures as the calendar flips to August. Condition ratings for corn came in unchanged for the week at 57 percent. This was down 1 point versus expectations. Soybeans were down 1 point on the week at 54 percent good to excellent. Minneapolis dropped 2 points from 51 to 49 percent good to excellent.
Trade Ideas
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
Risk/Reward
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
Please join me for a free grain and livestock webinar every Thursday at 3pm Central. We discuss supply, demand, weather, and the charts. Sign Up Now
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
Sean Lusk
Vice President Commercial Hedging Division
Walsh Trading
312 957 8103
888 391 7894 toll free
312 256 0109 fax
Walsh Trading
53 W Jackson Suite 750
Chicago, Il 60604