MACRO OUTLOOK: In my opinion, the medium to long term outlook for Wheat is bearish. In review of the daily charts, I would suggest this recent move upward, caused by a sudden appearance of heat and dryness, will run out of momentum and turn to the downside again. There is a steady flow of ships leaving port in Ukraine. Once we get through this weather market look for pressure on the market. Soybeans look to be a hold and Corn is a buy. Please take a look at the below puts and calls about hedging your Grains using real examples. Keep in mind, commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.
SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES
PRODUCERS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | PREMIUM COST |
| SEP ’22 | 1460 | 12 | 600 |
| NOV ’22 | 1260 | 12.5 | 625 |
| 1220 | 7 | 350 | |
| 1180 | 4 | 200 | |
| JAN ’23 | 1160 | 8 | 400 |
| MAR ’23 | 1100 | 7 | 350 |
| JUL ’23 | 1400 | 7.5 | 375 |
END USERS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | PREMIUM COST |
| SEP ’22 | 1520 | 8.5 | 425 |
| NOV ’22 | 1600 | 8 | 400 |
| 1620 | 7.5 | 375 | |
| 1640 | 7 | 350 | |
| JAN ’23 | 1760 | 8 | 400 |
| MAR ’23 | 1860 | 9 | 450 |
| JUL ’23 | 2100 | 8 | 400 |
*Cost in above tables does not include commissions and fees
CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES
PRODUCERS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | PREMIUM COST |
| SEP ’22 | 620 | 11 | 550 |
| DEC ’22 | 550 | 10 | 500 |
| 530 | 6.5 | 325 | |
| 510 | 4 | 200 | |
| MAR ’23 | 520 | 9 | 450 |
| JUL ’23 | 480 | 8 | 400 |
END USERS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | PREMIUM COST |
| SEP ’22 | 620 | 11 | 550 |
| DEC ’22 | 740 | 8 | 400 |
| 760 | 6 | 300 | |
| 780 | 5 | 250 | |
| MAR ’23 | 820 | 8 | 400 |
| JUL ’23 | 900 | 9 | 450 |
*Cost in above tables does not include commissions and fees
WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES
PRODUCERS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | PREMIUM COST |
| SEP ’22 | 720 | 9 | 450 |
| DEC ’22 | 650 | 11 | 550 |
| 640 | 9 | 450 | |
| 630 | 7 | 350 | |
| MAR ’23 | 620 | 11.5 | 575 |
| JUL ’23 | 560 | 10.5 | 525 |
END USERS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | PREMIUM COST |
| SEP ’22 | 760 | 6.5 | 325 |
| DEC ’22 | 960 | 10.5 | 525 |
| 1000 | 8 | 400 | |
| 1020 | 6 | 300 | |
| MAR ’23 | 1220 | 7 | 350 |
| JUL ’23 | 1480 | 7.5 | 375 |
*Cost in above tables does not include commissions and fees
Jerry Hanselman
Senior Account Executive
Walsh Trading, Inc.
jhanselman@walshtrading.com
630-248-7576
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