April Lean Hogs went limit down and settled 56.525. The African swine fever continues to spread in Asia and Europe and hogs can’t rally. The U.S. has all the disease free pork (so far) and nobody seems to be buying. The Lean Hog index and the Pork cutout index continues to flounder as the slaughter rate remain high which is …
AG TIME no trends no titles
I have expressed my perplexity at the markets. The Soy is historically high as I see it despite shrinking exports,increasing carry, increasing competition. In addition the african flu continues to spread. Now 3 new issues in Vietnam. The virus was found in dumplings from China. The corn bean ratio remains approx 2.45-1. This does not shift acreage away from beans. …
Grain Spreads: Soy Resilience, Corn wedge
Given the headline driven nature of the markets and two sided trade this week in corn and soybeans where we still remain range bound, lets surmise the last 24 hours regarding potential trade deals and pacts with China. President Trump indicated that US/China are making progress on trade, but it will be up to Trump to decide if a final …
Economic outlook 2019/2020.
While growth expectations are moving forward in 2019 and 2020, in my opinion it looks at best to be steady at the current levels of 2.7 percent. Economists are saying the US economy minus a few bumps should stay strong even if it pulls back to 2.5 percent, during the Obama era GDP was an 8 year average of 1.9 …
New Considerations
Still in a trading range even though we are feeling a little heavy today. It is a “Voice From the Tomb” day on February 22 to buy May and/or July Wheat which is held until May 10. Maybe the financial weight from equities and retail sales weighed on grains today but, it still appears that the grain trade is …
Livestock Report
April Lean Hogs stalled today as it consolidated within Tuesday’s trading range. It couldn’t hold its rally above a confluence of resistance levels on Tuesday, settling below the resistance band (60.41 – 60.98) at 60.325. Today’s trade saw an attempt to trade above the lower resistance level that failed and saw the market drift lower to settle at 59.775. This …
New Crop Opportunity
There’s lots of deliverable wheat around and keeping tabs of receipts and shipments shows that we are not at a pace to have deliverable stocks dwindle to zilch any time soon. Chicago is toting 7.345 million bushels of wheat. Mississippi River Deliverable Houses have 10.417 million bushels. Northwest Ohio locations have 10.065 million bushels. Ohio River facilities have 6.839 …
AG TIME
I am asking more questions than providing answers. Thats not always a great place to be . A observation regarding the soy. The market has lacked fluidity in my opinion. The market moves and retraces much of its direction. This makes it difficult to trade for a long term trend. The fundamentals to me dont match the price. The Brazilian …
Livestock Report: Wolfe Wave Hedging Opportunity
August Feeder Cattle has formed a Wolfe Wave pattern and provides an opportunity for producers needing downside price protection. It is in the fifth wave of the pattern and price reached a high at 151.875 today which is just below the fifth wave’s trendline at 151.975. A breakout above the trendline has strong resistance at 152.40 – 152.73 and then …
Hopefully, Soon!
The only constant is the tightening of the Chicago wheat spreads. Fear of receiving vomitoxin laden deliverable stocks, at a discount might, be a reason for stopping the trend and allow the basis to perform the task of rationing milling quality. Things will stay interesting in wheat through March deliveries as the running moving average in both Chicago and Kansas …