The President concluded his meeting with Chairman Kim. The Chinese talks continue. All these things take time. It is important to keep that in perspective. ( talking to myself ) The soy was under pressure. The exports are way off. Even with a new round of purchases the carry is huge. The Chinese are now starting to admit openly that …
Bonds
Bonds Bond volatility is holding steady. Pakistan/India situation holding up volatility. Fed commenting on “shrinking the balance sheet” and throw in the Trump factor, trade war talks North Kore unemployment numbers next week another FOMC later in the month are very good reasons volatility remains high. Strong liquidation yesterday shaking out some longs one the break of 145.25 saw spike …
Livestock Report
April Live Cattle eked out another new high today, reaching 130.10. It was a quiet session with a very small trading range. It settled at 129.925 for the second a day in a row. The 129.925 level is a key resistance level and price is knocking at the door, trying to break it down. A successful takedown of this resistance …
Grain Spreads:Deal or No Deal
As expected, Hawkish comments from USTR Lighthizer occurred thisweek in his testimony to the House Ways & Means Committee. The US Trade Representative head stated that its too early to predict the outcome of the US/China trade talks. However, significant progress has been scored. Moreover, China cannot “buy off” the US with massive amounts of US soybean purchases. In my …
Livestock Report
April Lean Hogs had a strong recovery today, bouncing back from Monday’s test of the February 20 low. It came within .425 of going up limit reaching 56.475 before pulling back at the close and settling at 55.725. Hogs are in consolidation mode again, trading between 56.60 and 52.25. A breakout above 56.60 could lead to a test of the …
AG TIME – Doesn’t Add Up
I will start the piece tonight with a disclaimer. The following are my own thoughts and perceptions. The reason behind the disclaimer. There are things going on that I just do not understand relative to an historic outlook based on my perceptions. Perceptions of what makes sense. The soy today was under pressure as were the products. The meal along …
Livestock Spreads: April/July Hogs
Why would hogs Move Higher? If they did, here is a spread to take advantage. Buy April19/Sell July 19. Maybe the best explanation is that its end of month profit taking combined with new rolls in the market first half of March, that could promote some short covering. Reasons for Rally? Lower slaughter numbers due to weather disruptions have slowed …
Gold
Gold After huge buying on 2/19 the gold trade gave back most of the move in recent days. There was two sided trade yesterday with light volume. With the current headline risk with trade war talks, US North Korea tension and Fed speaker Powell starting his two day speech. Then you have the Brexit situation. Volatility should be high if …
Livestock Report
August Feeder Cattle has formed a Wolfe Wave pattern and provides an opportunity for producers needing downside price protection. It is in the fifth wave of the pattern and price reached a high at 151.875 on February 12th, which is just below the fifth wave’s trend line at 151.975. A breakout above the trend line has strong resistance at 152.40 …
Grain Spreads: Lack of Specifics
News of US/China trade progress and a late Friday pledge by China to secure 10 MMTs of US soybeans lifted CBOT futures last night and early morning. That was as specific news for any US commodity so far.We cautioned in last week’s post that a lack of specifics regarding a trade deal and extensions of previous deadlines could be seen …