The President concluded his meeting with Chairman Kim. The Chinese talks continue. All these things take time. It is important to keep that in perspective. ( talking to myself ) The soy was under pressure. The exports are way off. Even with a new round of purchases the carry is huge. The Chinese are now starting to admit openly that the ASF is a real problem. The breeding stock is not being replenished. ( hogs ) The guesses are 5-10% of meal consumption conservatively. There are estimates as much as 30%. There are thousands of hogs being culled at a time, dead all over in some areas. This is covered up as no pictures are allowed. The protein markets are changing. The US has the best margins. It is my thought the huge crush pace will start to weigh on margins. The margins above 90 cents makes no sense in my opinion. The oil share is 32.9%, holding steady. This trend may continue. The next week or two could be important.
The corn is remaining depressed. The US is not the cheapest offer today. The Black Sea and the South American production is improving. This was my fear. There is a definitive window to rally. The weather in the US could prove problematic for early planting. Will this be enough to get the market moving higher? I do not believe the USDA estimates for corn planting will be accurate. I think 1-2 million acre increase, year on year. It may be US balance remains friendly but the global supply is large enough to force a range bound trade. The market has much to digest. The Chinese ethanol future. The Chinese stocks. Are they as large as thought? We have broken quite a bit while many lay out the friendly scenario. This is typical, as I believe most are wrong. I have been as well regarding corn thus far.
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