MACRO BACKDROP: Good Monday, readers. It seems very difficult these days for stocks to find the correct path forward, in my opinion. So I’ll keep this short. Last week, the underlying equities markets faced some adversity in the form of Theresa May’s cabinet members causing problems for Brexit proceeding smoothly with the E.U. This appeared to have sent capital flowing …
Looking for a Trade Agreement
The market’s focus may be turning to the southern hemisphere with wheat harvest weather in Argentina and Australia and soybean sowing conditions in Brazil and Argentina……………..For all extent and purposes the bean and corn harvest in the US is done as is winter wheat seeding……………………….We are approaching Holiday mode and the markets are closed on Thursday and close early …
JANUARY SILVER
I am anticipating a continued bullish pattern from the 14.000 area retracement in my opinion. FUTURES ARE JANUARY 2019…. DECEMBER EXPIRING SOON This is a bullish January futures suggestion. Support 14.030, 14.150, 14.000 area. Resistance 14.750, 14.805, 15.000(100 day MA) area. These are wider targets, targets closer to the last traded price, 14.412 last, as for this writing. Closer targets are 14.300 support and …
AG TIME – Looking Forward
The soy was led higher by meal. The President said he was working on some deals with China and suspended further tariff action. A deal will be forthcoming at some point. But, what does it really mean to the market? My long term thoughts remain on the bear side. There are many things going on. The US carry has grown …
Thanksgiving Week
Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Year’s Day are here and now and we are in official holiday mode next week………………………………..Grains are closed on Thursday and close early on Friday…………………………………………………………………..Liquidation and roll over of December futures might be the focus of the market the next few sessions as first notice day is November 30……………………………Trade talk is that we might anticipate healthy corn deliveries and …
Livestock Report
January Feeder Cattle tested support at 146.20 early in the trading session, making the session low just above it at 146.275. It made its way higher the remainder of the day, repeatedly bucking horns with the 200 DMA at 147.725 and dipping lower before making the high at 148.075 at the end of the session. It settled just above the …
Politics/Trade Pacts/Thanksgiving
On November 23 the CME has the authority to recalculate daily storage fees for wheat and if the WZ/WH spread is at or under 19 cents storage rates will drop to .00265 cents/bushel/day from the present .00365 cents/bushel/day…………….Spreads might just stay within the range of less that 50% of full carry and, theoretically, may go to inverse, but, that’s …
Livestock Report
Cattle markets made an early attempt at a rally today before stalling and falling to the lower end of the day’s trading ranges. January Feeder Cattle tested the 200 DMA at 147.725, making the high at 148.00 and then trading to the low of the day at 146.125. It settled unchanged at 146.975. The low tested the key level at …
Deliveries and G 20
Hopes are growing for a new trade pact/agreement with China clearing more hurdles and, perhaps, culminating a little before, on, or shortly after the G-20 meetings scheduled for November 30 in Buenos Aires…………………………Good news from the Korean Peninsula may coincide and we may be facing a new year with bright trade prospects…………………………….. Corn and bean harvest is approaching …
AG TIME – Much to Consider
The soy was lower yesterday. There are a few reasons. The harvest progress is rolling along. The US China spat is of concern. It will be a daily speculation. If the spat is settled beans can rally. In my opinion it would be a short vertical rally that would offer hedging opportunities. The markets are pointing to longer term bear …