The Calm Before the Storm

Brendan Sears General Commentary, Stocks Leave a Comment

MACRO BACKDROP: Happy Cyber Monday, folks. I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving last week and ate a lot of turkey. If you were out shopping on Friday, I hope you made it out alive. In general, markets appeared to have moved off of weak volume last week due to the holiday departure. This week, however, it appears all …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzo General Commentary, Livestock Leave a Comment

The start of the new week saw the cattle markets trade within their Wednesday trading ranges. January Feeder Cattle is consolidating between the Wednesday high at 150.00 and support at 148.425. Aggressive traders could buy a breakout above 150.00, expecting the market to test resistance at 151.55 and then 152.30. Place stops in accordance to your account size and risk …

AG TIME – A Tale of two Tapes

John Walsh Grains Leave a Comment

The first is the soy. The market apparently does not think Trump and Xi will work out their differences. As I have said, it will take some time, but China will capitulate. Regardless of the timing, there are too many beans in the world. The SA weather is excellent overall. The US harvest is wrapping up. The export numbers tell …

Weekly Events

Steve Bruce Grains Leave a Comment

Friday is first notice day on the December futures for delivery on December 3 which is the first day of Hanukkah…………………Given present basis levels traders might anticipate heavy corn deliveries and light wheat deliveries………..Regardless, out of position hedgers and speculators tend to be out of any and all December futures by the close on Thursday!     Hopes are high …

Storage Calculation

Steve Bruce Grains Leave a Comment

    The CME is expected to lower the storage rate for wheat as of December 19, 2018 as the WZ/WH spread is at less than 50% of the CME calculated full carry running average  on November 23………………………It is close to a mathematical impossibility to not lighten the maximum storage rate starting on December 19 as the running average with …

Livestock Report

Ben DiCostanzo General Commentary, Livestock Leave a Comment

The February Lean Hogs contract is now the lead contract as its volume has overtaken the December Hogs. It made a new high early in the trading session reaching 69.50 before breaking down hard and making the session low at 66.875. The market had been rallying on speculation the Chinese will eventually have to purchase US Hogs because of the …

AG TIME – Record Turkey on the Way

John Walsh Grains Leave a Comment

The markets up again. The banter regarding what The Trump Admin will do is getting old. Frankly, if this is what is the most important thing to the market, which it seems it is, then I must be long in the tooth. The one long term constant in, my opinion, is that the numbers matter. Today perhaps there exists a …

Getting Through Deliveries

Steve Bruce Grains Leave a Comment

Six trading sessions left to leave or roll out of December futures positions prior to first notice day on November 30………..We are open a full session tomorrow and will be closed on Thursday and enjoy a shortened session on Friday…………..Happy Thanksgiving!       It still appears that the market is floundering as end users are hoping for another 10 …

Grain Spreads: KC vs Chicago Wheat, Silver

Sean Lusk General Commentary Leave a Comment

I attached 2 charts here. First is the KC/Chicago wheat spread Second is Silver   Historically higher protein content wheat should carry some premium in the market should demand for US cargoes ever emerge and sustain. There has been noise in the market about Russian exports slowing in 2019, at least prior to harvest next spring due to their rapid …

AG TIME – Round and Round We Go

John Walsh Grains Leave a Comment

The markets under pressure. The weekend meeting bore no fruit. The President is scheduled to speak with Premier Xi at the end of this month. The reality as I see it is the Chinese will need to make a deal. They won’t win a drawn out battle. Trump would like another victory. I question much of what I read. The …