The USDA report tomorrow could be important. The markets are easing a bit into Thursday. I have covered the fundamentals as I see it over the last week. The numbers are off the charts huge. That most likely won’t change. The probabilities are a .5-1 bu to the acre increase. This coupled with the declining exports will equate to a …
Feeding a Bull Market
Bull markets need to be fed every day! The cupboards appear to be bare, today!!! The USDA may change that tomorrow at 11:00 with its release of the October 1 Production estimates and Supply/Demand projections. Analysts and traders have been suggesting that we might see a small increase in corn and bean yields, domestic …
AG TIME – The Calendar is Key
The soy was under pressure with the thoughts switching to the USDA report Thursday. The crop progress today should show the pace about normal. The weather forecast is drying out in many key areas and will allow the harvest to progress nicely. There will, of course, remain spots that are problematic. That is normal for any year. There is plenty …
Hurricanes,Ethanol, and Reports
Hurricanes and Crop Reports are on the menu this week and both are equally easy to predict……………………Not! …………………Go into Thursday’s report understanding that the USDA has given us bearish surprises on the last three major reports and it is a coin flip once again…………………Do not believe that there is a pattern! Anything can happen! The average trade guesses are for …
Livestock Report – Cattle
Cattle markets continue to trade in a range. Feeder Cattle is trading between 159.90 and 155.525. Live Cattle is trading between 119.75 and 116.625. The cash market on a live basis between 110.00 and 112.00 and dressed between 173.00 and 175.00. Boxed beef between 203.00 and 206.00. Supply and demand in a balanced (ho hum) state. What can alter the …
Grain Spreads: The State of Grain
Impressive bounce in beans and a modest pop for corn followed by recent rallies in wheat being sold into has been the theme for grains to start October and the 4th quarter. Trade agreements like NAFTA being reworked with the recent impasse with Canada now behind us has given thoughts to deals being reworked and resolved with the EU and …
AG TIME – Production
The USDA will release production estimates on Thursday. This report will be of importance, in my opinion. The expectation is for a larger yield, approaching a record. The carry will continue to rise to unprecedented levels if the numbers continue to climb. The global picture remains much the same. The Brazilian is way ahead on planting with some key areas …
Resumption of Harvest
The National Weather Service forecast of cooler and drier than normal in the Heartland in the October 13 to 17 period is a small reason for today’s weakness…………………………………………………..We have experienced fund short covering ahead of the USDA Production and Supply/Demand Reports on Thursday and some analysts believe that the grain markets have ripe for funds to increase participation in a …
Friday wrap, Inflation, higher rates
GOOD MORNING, The following represents my thoughts , opinions, and the market chatter I pick up, So, It is my belief that knowing or thinking one knows where we are in a given cycle can assist in a long term thought. Then The Olive Line can assist in smoothing out the trading levels. I have been bullish Inflation for quite …
Harvest Headaches/Seeding/USDA Report
It’s starting to look like it’s not going to be a cake walk with harvesting corn and beans………………………Wet today and the radar shows systems coming in every few days and then the National Weather Service in its 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day forecast suggests that the western half of the corn belt might be cooler than normal …